Elo Forecast

World Cup 2026

Saudi Arabia1–1Uruguay

Elo change: Saudi Arabia +22

Pre-game: 17% / 24% / 59%

Notable upset — draw — Uruguay failed to win (Elo gap: 316)

Uruguay goals →
012345+
← Saudi Arabia goals08.7%14.6%12.2%6.8%2.9%1.3%
16.7%11.2%9.4%5.2%2.2%1.0%
22.6%4.3%3.6%2.0%0.8%
30.7%1.1%0.9%0.5%
4
5+

Gold = actual result (1–1).

Click a team name to view their stats.

CountryGrpElo Δ1st (grp)2nd (grp)3rd (adv)R32R16QFSFFinalWin ▼
ArgentinaJ+0-0.4%+0.4%+0.1%+0.1%+3.0%+1.8%+1.0%+0.4%+0.2%
ScotlandC+0-0.1%+0.6%-0.6%—+0.3%———+0.2%
NetherlandsF+0+0.8%-1.0%+0.5%+0.2%-0.4%+0.4%+0.2%+0.2%+0.2%
PortugalK+0+0.1%-0.6%+0.7%+0.2%+0.4%-0.1%+0.3%+0.2%+0.1%
United StatesD+0+0.3%-0.3%——-0.4%+0.2%+0.3%+0.1%—
Ivory CoastE+0—+0.2%—+0.2%+0.7%+0.3%———
EnglandL+0-0.2%+0.3%——+0.1%——+0.2%—
MexicoA+0+0.4%-0.3%-0.1%—-0.3%-0.2%—+0.3%—
BelgiumG+0-0.3%—+0.2%——+0.3%+0.4%+0.2%—
ColombiaK+0-0.5%+0.3%+0.1%—-0.3%-0.1%+0.1%——
South KoreaA+0-0.5%+0.3%+0.3%+0.2%-0.2%-0.1%———
Saudi ArabiaH+22-0.7%+6.3%+5.8%+11.3%+2.8%+1.1%+0.4%+0.1%—
Czech RepublicA+0—-0.1%+0.5%+0.4%+0.6%+0.3%+0.1%——
SwitzerlandB+0-0.1%+0.4%+0.1%+0.4%+0.2%+0.4%+0.2%——
PanamaL+0+0.1%-0.3%—-0.2%-0.4%—+0.1%——
AustriaJ+0——+0.3%+0.3%+0.2%+0.1%-0.1%——
SwedenF+0-0.5%+0.8%-0.2%+0.2%——+0.2%——
CanadaB+0+0.2%-0.6%+0.3%-0.2%-0.1%-0.4%+0.1%+0.1%—
Bosnia and HerzegovinaB+0+0.2%—-0.4%-0.2%+0.4%+0.2%+0.2%——
JapanF+0-0.3%+0.2%+0.2%———+0.2%——
IranG+0+0.1%—+0.5%+0.5%+0.4%+0.1%+0.1%——
IraqI+0-0.2%+0.2%+0.3%+0.3%+0.4%+0.2%———
TurkeyD+0——+0.2%—-0.3%—-0.1%——
HaitiC+0—+0.2%+0.3%+0.4%—————
GhanaL+0—-0.3%+0.2%-0.1%-0.1%————
CuraçaoE+0——+0.2%+0.1%—————
QatarB+0-0.3%+0.2%———————
New ZealandG+0+0.5%+0.2%-0.1%+0.6%+0.3%————
AlgeriaJ+0+0.2%-0.4%+0.3%+0.2%+0.5%+0.3%+0.2%——
South AfricaA+0——+0.3%+0.4%—-0.1%———
BrazilC+0—-0.2%+0.1%—+0.2%+0.2%-0.2%——
CroatiaL+0+0.1%+0.3%-0.2%+0.3%+0.2%+0.5%———
TunisiaF+0——+0.4%+0.4%—————
ParaguayD+0-0.1%+0.3%—+0.2%+0.2%+0.2%———
AustraliaD+0—+0.1%——-0.1%+0.5%+0.4%+0.1%—
MoroccoC+0—-0.6%+0.3%-0.2%—+0.2%———
JordanJ+0+0.2%—-0.3%-0.2%—————
EgyptG+0-0.3%-0.3%+0.4%-0.1%+0.2%—-0.1%——
NorwayI+0-0.2%+0.2%-0.2%-0.3%-0.8%-0.3%———
EcuadorE+0+0.1%-0.1%—-0.1%——-0.1%——
Cabo VerdeH+0+2.3%+5.5%-7.0%+0.8%+0.3%————
UzbekistanK+0+0.4%+0.2%-0.1%+0.4%+0.5%—-0.1%——
GermanyE+0—————-0.2%-0.5%-0.2%—
DR CongoK+0——-0.3%-0.2%-0.2%—-0.2%-0.1%—
SenegalI+0—-0.4%+0.4%+0.1%+0.2%—+0.2%—-0.1%
FranceI+0+0.4%—-0.3%—-0.3%-0.4%-0.2%-0.2%-0.2%
SpainH+0+6.5%-7.9%—-1.5%-0.7%-1.2%-0.7%-0.3%-0.3%
UruguayH-22-8.1%-3.9%-3.2%-15.2%-7.8%-4.4%-2.5%-1.3%-0.5%