Elo Forecast

World Cup 2026

StandingsGroupsGames & BracketPredictionOdds History

Most Likely Outcome

102 games played · 2 predicted from Elo model

2–1Actual result1.3–0.9Group xG (expected goals)67%Bracket win probabilityPredicted winnerActual winnerItalyPredicted team (not yet determined)

Click any game for the goal probability heatmap and full odds breakdown. · Click a team name to view their stats. · Bold team name = host nation — receives +102 Elo home advantage in all simulated games.

Knockout Stage

Final

Spain
51%
Argentina
49%

3rd Place

France
50%
England
50%

Group Stage

Upset:!Mild upset!!Notable upset!!!Major upset
Group A
Mexico1875
2
–
0
1517South Africa
South Korea1758
2
–
1
1740Czech Republic
South Africa1511
1
!!
1
1712Czech Republic
Mexico1881
1
–
0
1786South Korea
Mexico1896
3
–
0
1696Czech Republic
South Africa1527
1
!!
0
1771South Korea
Group B
Canada1788
1
!
1
1595Bosnia and Herzegovina
Qatar1421
1
!!!
1
1891Switzerland
Bosnia and Herzegovina1616
1
–
4
1865Switzerland
Canada1767
6
–
0
1447Qatar
Canada1777
1
–
2
1885Switzerland
Bosnia and Herzegovina1596
3
–
1
1437Qatar
Group C
Brazil1991
1
!
1
1827Morocco
Haiti1548
0
–
1
1782Scotland
Morocco1840
1
–
0
1794Scotland
Brazil1978
3
–
0
1536Haiti
Morocco1866
4
–
2
1528Haiti
Brazil1986
3
–
0
1768Scotland
Group D
United States1726
4
!
1
1834Paraguay
Australia1777
2
!
0
1911Turkey
United States1780
2
–
0
1839Australia
Paraguay1780
1
–
0
1849Turkey
United States1820
2
–
3
1813Turkey
Paraguay1816
0
–
0
1799Australia
Group E
Germany1932
7
–
1
1434Curaçao
Ivory Coast1695
1
!!
0
1938Ecuador
Germany1939
2
–
1
1743Ivory Coast
Curaçao1427
0
!!!
0
1890Ecuador
Germany1954
1
–
2
1864Ecuador
Curaçao1453
0
–
2
1728Ivory Coast
Group F
Netherlands1948
2
–
2
1906Japan
Sweden1712
5
–
1
1628Tunisia
Netherlands1944
5
–
1
1755Sweden
Japan1910
4
–
0
1585Tunisia
Netherlands1972
3
–
1
1570Tunisia
Japan1925
1
!
1
1727Sweden
Group G
Belgium1894
1
!
1
1696Egypt
Iran1772
2
!!
2
1562New Zealand
Belgium1879
0
!
0
1756Iran
Egypt1711
3
–
1
1578New Zealand
Belgium1869
5
–
1
1549New Zealand
Egypt1740
1
–
1
1766Iran
Group H
Spain2157
0
!!!
0
1578Cabo Verde
Saudi Arabia1576
1
!!
1
1892Uruguay
Spain2129
4
–
0
1598Saudi Arabia
Cabo Verde1606
2
!!
2
1870Uruguay
Spain2134
1
–
0
1851Uruguay
Cabo Verde1625
0
–
0
1593Saudi Arabia
Group I
France2063
3
–
1
1860Senegal
Iraq1607
1
–
4
1914Norway
France2084
3
–
0
1592Iraq
Senegal1839
2
–
3
1929Norway
France2090
4
–
1
1951Norway
Senegal1817
5
–
0
1586Iraq
Group J
Argentina2115
3
–
0
1772Algeria
Austria1830
3
–
1
1680Jordan
Argentina2128
2
–
0
1857Austria
Algeria1759
2
–
1
1653Jordan
Argentina2144
3
–
1
1632Jordan
Algeria1780
3
–
3
1841Austria
Group K
Portugal1989
1
!!
1
1652DR Congo
Uzbekistan1714
1
–
3
1982Colombia
Portugal1967
5
–
0
1698Uzbekistan
DR Congo1674
0
–
1
1998Colombia
Portugal1988
0
–
0
2006Colombia
DR Congo1666
3
–
1
1677Uzbekistan
Group L
England2024
4
–
2
1912Croatia
Ghana1510
1
!!
0
1730Panama
England2055
0
!!!
0
1557Ghana
Croatia1881
1
–
0
1683Panama
England2028
2
–
0
1668Panama
Croatia1896
2
–
1
1584Ghana