Elo Forecast

World Cup 2026

Spain00Cabo Verde

Elo change: Spain -28

Pre-game: 89% / 8% / 3%

Major upsetdraw — Spain failed to win (Elo gap: 579)

Cabo Verde goals →
012345+
Spain goals02.3%1.1%
17.6%3.7%0.9%
212.5%6.1%1.5%
313.6%6.6%1.6%
411.1%5.4%1.3%
5+14.3%7.0%1.7%

Gold = actual result (0–0).

Click a team name to view their stats.

CountryGrpElo Δ1st (grp)2nd (grp)3rd (adv)R32R16QFSFFinalWin
ArgentinaJ+0-0.2%-0.2%+1.3%+1.1%+0.9%+0.7%+0.7%
FranceI+0+0.6%-0.6%-0.1%-0.2%-0.2%+0.3%+0.4%+0.3%
ScotlandC+0+0.5%-0.6%-0.8%-0.9%-0.5%-0.4%+0.2%+0.2%
PortugalK+0-0.1%-0.1%-0.3%-0.5%-0.3%+0.6%+0.1%+0.2%+0.2%
JapanF+0-0.2%-0.1%-0.2%-0.3%-0.1%+0.2%+0.2%
SenegalI+0+0.3%-1.0%-0.8%-0.3%+0.2%+0.2%+0.2%
United StatesD+0+0.2%-0.4%+0.1%+0.1%+0.7%+0.3%+0.2%
Cabo VerdeH+28+5.9%+10.5%+8.4%+24.9%+7.8%+3.0%+1.1%+0.4%+0.1%
EnglandL+0-0.4%+0.5%-0.5%-0.3%-0.3%+0.2%+0.1%
MoroccoC+0-0.3%+0.5%-0.5%-0.2%+0.7%+0.4%+0.2%+0.3%+0.1%
MexicoA+0+0.2%-0.1%-0.1%-0.2%-0.5%-0.3%+0.1%
SwitzerlandB+0+0.2%+0.3%-0.1%+0.4%+0.3%+0.1%
Ivory CoastE+0+0.3%-0.1%-0.4%-0.2%-0.9%-0.5%
PanamaL+0-0.1%-0.1%-0.5%-0.7%-0.4%+0.4%+0.2%
Czech RepublicA+0-1.5%-1.5%-1.0%-0.5%+0.1%+0.1%
BelgiumG+0-0.2%-0.3%-0.6%-0.5%+0.2%
DR CongoK+0-0.4%-0.4%+0.1%+0.5%+0.2%+0.1%
JordanJ+0+0.2%-0.2%+2.1%+0.7%+0.4%+0.1%
EcuadorE+0+0.2%-0.8%-0.7%-0.1%+0.4%+0.1%
NetherlandsF+0+0.2%-0.4%-0.1%-0.3%-0.2%
AlgeriaJ+0+0.3%-0.5%-0.7%-0.8%+1.0%+0.2%+0.2%+0.1%
CanadaB+0+0.4%-0.6%+0.3%+0.1%+0.4%+0.3%
IranG+0-0.1%+0.3%-0.5%-0.4%-0.5%-0.1%
Bosnia and HerzegovinaB+0-0.5%-0.2%-0.7%-0.4%-0.1%
UzbekistanK+0+0.3%-1.0%-0.7%-0.5%+0.4%
New ZealandG+0+0.2%-0.4%-0.2%-0.3%
TunisiaF+0-0.1%-0.2%-0.3%
Saudi ArabiaH+0+4.1%-3.5%-4.0%-3.5%-0.3%-0.2%
AustriaJ+0-0.1%+0.2%-0.6%-0.5%+2.0%+0.9%+0.3%+0.1%
HaitiC+0-0.2%-0.2%-0.4%
CuraçaoE+0-0.3%-0.3%
South AfricaA+0+0.1%-0.5%-0.3%-0.1%
South KoreaA+0-0.2%-0.3%-0.5%-0.5%
GhanaL+0+0.1%
TurkeyD+0-0.6%-0.6%-0.2%
QatarB+0+0.4%+0.1%+0.5%+0.2%
IraqI+0-0.2%-0.3%-0.2%
GermanyE+0-0.5%+0.2%+0.3%-0.2%+0.3%+0.2%+0.3%
SwedenF+0-0.5%-0.4%+0.2%+0.2%+0.1%
EgyptG+0-0.3%-0.3%-0.5%-0.2%+0.1%
BrazilC+0-0.2%+0.2%-0.3%-0.3%
ParaguayD+0-0.2%+0.4%-0.5%-0.3%-0.1%
UruguayH+0+10.5%-19.4%+5.8%-3.2%-0.7%-1.0%-0.4%-0.2%
CroatiaL+0+0.5%-0.4%-0.6%-0.4%+0.4%-0.1%
ColombiaK+0+0.1%-0.1%-0.2%-0.2%-0.3%+0.7%+0.5%
AustraliaD+0-0.4%-0.4%-0.5%-0.6%-0.2%-0.3%-0.1%
NorwayI+0-0.8%+0.7%-0.4%-0.5%-0.3%-0.4%-0.3%-0.3%-0.1%
SpainH-28-20.5%+12.4%+5.3%-2.7%-6.2%-5.0%-4.2%-3.3%-2.5%