Elo Forecast

World Cup 2026

France3–1Senegal

Elo change: France +21

Pre-game: 49% / 25% / 25%

Senegal goals →
012345+
← France goals07.4%7.7%4.0%1.4%
111.6%12.0%6.2%2.2%0.6%
29.1%9.4%4.9%1.7%
34.7%4.9%2.5%0.9%
41.8%1.9%1.0%
5+0.8%0.8%

Gold = actual result (3–1).

Click a team name to view their stats.

CountryGrpElo Δ1st (grp)2nd (grp)3rd (adv)R32R16QFSFFinalWin ▼
FranceI+21+28.1%-8.0%-10.7%+9.4%+9.0%+6.6%+5.1%+3.0%+1.9%
UruguayH+0+0.1%—+0.5%+0.6%+0.2%—+0.1%+0.2%+0.2%
NorwayI+0-6.7%+9.9%-2.2%+1.1%+0.7%+0.3%+0.2%—+0.1%
Ivory CoastE+0-0.3%+0.1%+0.5%+0.3%+1.0%————
PanamaL+0+0.3%+0.5%-0.4%+0.4%+0.5%+0.3%+0.4%+0.1%—
SwitzerlandB+0—-0.3%+0.6%+0.3%+0.8%+0.4%+0.2%——
EcuadorE+0—+0.2%+0.4%+0.5%+0.6%+0.3%+0.2%+0.2%—
CanadaB+0+0.4%-0.1%—+0.2%-0.1%————
JordanJ+0+0.3%—+0.2%+0.4%—+0.1%———
Bosnia and HerzegovinaB+0-0.3%+0.5%+0.5%+0.7%+0.5%+0.3%———
EgyptG+0-0.3%-0.1%—-0.4%-0.4%————
IranG+0+0.8%-0.4%-0.3%+0.1%+0.3%+0.2%+0.1%——
DR CongoK+0+0.3%—+0.2%+0.5%+0.1%—+0.1%——
United StatesD+0-0.4%+0.5%—+0.1%+0.2%+0.2%———
TunisiaF+0——-0.1%—-0.3%————
ColombiaK+0-0.2%—+0.3%—+0.5%+0.2%—-0.1%—
CuraçaoE+0—-0.2%———————
GhanaL+0-0.1%————————
South AfricaA+0—+0.1%+0.3%+0.4%+0.3%————
QatarB+0-0.2%—+0.4%+0.2%+0.1%————
Cabo VerdeH+0+0.2%-0.6%—-0.4%-0.5%-0.1%———
Saudi ArabiaH+0—+0.3%—+0.3%—————
JapanF+0+0.1%+0.1%—+0.2%-0.4%+0.2%—+0.1%—
TurkeyD+0-0.1%-0.2%+0.2%—-0.4%-0.4%-0.1%-0.1%—
HaitiC+0——+0.4%+0.3%—-0.1%———
New ZealandG+0—+0.4%+0.1%+0.7%+0.4%+0.2%———
AustraliaD+0+0.5%-0.1%—+0.4%—-0.3%-0.1%——
MexicoA+0————-0.3%-0.2%-0.2%-0.2%—
IraqI+0-2.6%+1.0%+0.8%-0.8%-0.2%-0.1%-0.1%——
BelgiumG+0-0.6%—-0.2%-0.6%-0.9%-0.5%-0.4%-0.3%—
Czech RepublicA+0——+0.3%+0.2%——-0.2%——
GermanyE+0+0.4%-0.2%-0.2%—+0.5%-0.5%———
UzbekistanK+0—-0.1%+0.2%——+0.1%———
South KoreaA+0————-0.1%-0.2%-0.3%——
SwedenF+0—-0.1%+0.2%—-1.7%-0.6%-0.3%-0.1%—
ParaguayD+0—-0.2%+0.6%+0.5%-0.3%-0.3%-0.2%——
AlgeriaJ+0—-0.2%+0.4%+0.2%+0.5%+0.5%+0.2%——
BrazilC+0+0.3%——+0.3%—-0.2%-0.4%-0.1%—
AustriaJ+0—-0.1%+0.8%+0.6%+0.5%—+0.2%+0.1%—
PortugalK+0—+0.1%+0.1%+0.2%+0.8%+0.5%+0.3%+0.2%-0.1%
EnglandL+0-0.5%—+0.3%-0.2%+0.4%+0.1%——-0.1%
ArgentinaJ+0-0.2%+0.4%—+0.2%—-0.2%——-0.1%
MoroccoC+0—-0.4%+0.5%——-0.3%-0.5%-0.2%-0.1%
ScotlandC+0-0.3%+0.5%+0.2%+0.5%-0.1%-0.3%-0.2%-0.2%-0.2%
CroatiaL+0+0.2%-0.4%+0.3%—-0.4%+0.2%-0.1%-0.2%-0.2%
NetherlandsF+0-0.2%—+0.2%—-1.4%-0.7%-0.7%-0.4%-0.2%
SpainH+0-0.4%+0.3%+0.1%—-0.2%-0.2%-0.2%-0.4%-0.3%
SenegalI-21-18.8%-2.9%+4.4%-17.3%-10.4%-5.7%-3.1%-1.5%-0.6%