Elo Forecast

World Cup 2026

Germany1–2Ecuador

Elo change: Germany -38

Pre-game: 42% / 27% / 32%

Ecuador goals →
012345+
← Germany goals08.2%9.4%5.4%2.0%0.6%
111.2%12.7%7.3%2.8%0.8%
27.6%8.6%4.9%1.9%0.5%
33.4%3.9%2.2%0.8%
41.2%1.3%0.8%
5+0.5%

Gold = actual result (1–2).

Click a team name to view their stats.

CountryGrpElo Δ1st (grp)2nd (grp)3rd (adv)R32R16QFSFFinalWin ▼
EcuadorE+38—+18.3%+54.9%+73.2%+30.0%+15.4%+7.5%+3.5%+1.7%
ColombiaK+0+0.1%-0.1%——+0.2%+0.4%+0.3%+0.3%+0.3%
United StatesD+0————-0.5%-0.7%-0.2%+0.3%+0.3%
NetherlandsF+0+0.2%-0.3%——+0.6%+0.3%+0.3%+0.2%+0.2%
JapanF+0-0.3%+0.4%——+0.2%+0.3%——+0.1%
BelgiumG+0-0.1%+0.6%-0.6%—-0.2%-0.2%-0.1%——
SpainH+0————+0.3%—-0.2%+0.4%—
CanadaB+0————+0.3%+0.3%+0.3%+0.1%—
SwitzerlandB+0—————+0.1%———
South AfricaA+0————-0.3%-0.1%———
UruguayH+0-0.1%-0.1%-0.3%-0.5%+0.5%+0.2%+0.1%+0.1%—
EgyptG+0—-0.1%——+0.5%+0.4%+0.2%+0.1%—
MoroccoC+0————-0.2%-0.3%+0.1%——
Saudi ArabiaH+0—+0.2%+0.1%+0.4%+0.1%————
JordanJ+0——-0.2%-0.2%—————
GhanaL+0-0.2%+0.5%-0.4%—-0.1%+0.1%———
IraqI+0——-2.3%-2.3%-0.4%-0.1%———
CuraçaoE+0—-14.5%+14.3%-0.2%-0.3%————
New ZealandG+0————+0.2%————
UzbekistanK+0——-1.9%-1.9%-0.6%-0.3%———
PanamaL+0——-0.2%-0.2%—————
TurkeyD+0——-0.8%-0.8%-0.2%————
SenegalI+0——-4.3%-4.3%-0.9%-0.7%-0.4%-0.1%—
Cabo VerdeH+0—-0.2%-0.4%-0.5%—————
DR CongoK+0——-0.2%-0.3%+0.1%+0.2%———
IranG+0—-0.5%-0.6%-1.0%-0.6%-0.3%———
ArgentinaJ+0—————-0.4%-0.1%-0.3%—
SwedenF+0—-0.1%-3.1%-3.1%+0.4%+0.3%———
Bosnia and HerzegovinaB+0————+0.5%+0.2%———
ParaguayD+0—-0.1%-5.3%-5.4%-1.6%-0.6%-0.4%-0.2%—
CroatiaL+0—-0.3%-2.4%-2.7%-1.0%-0.8%-0.5%-0.1%—
AustraliaD+0——-4.0%-3.9%-0.8%-0.6%-0.4%-0.2%—
Ivory CoastE+0—-3.7%-8.3%-12.0%-3.4%-1.3%-0.4%-0.1%—
South KoreaA+0——-6.8%-6.8%-3.7%-1.0%-0.4%-0.2%—
BrazilC+0————-0.4%-0.5%-0.5%-0.2%—
AlgeriaJ+0—-0.3%-6.6%-6.9%-2.3%-0.9%-0.3%-0.1%—
ScotlandC+0——-17.6%-17.6%-3.1%-1.3%-0.5%-0.3%—
EnglandL+0+0.3%-0.2%——-0.7%-0.5%-0.5%-0.2%—
AustriaJ+0—+0.3%-3.3%-3.0%-1.8%-1.0%-0.4%-0.2%-0.1%
FranceI+0+0.2%-0.2%——-1.5%———-0.2%
PortugalK+0-0.1%+0.2%———-0.2%—-0.2%-0.3%
NorwayI+0-0.2%+0.2%——-4.3%-2.1%-1.2%-0.6%-0.3%
MexicoA+0————-3.5%-2.3%-1.1%-0.5%-0.3%
GermanyE-38————-1.4%-1.8%-1.5%-1.4%-0.6%