Elo Forecast

World Cup 2026

Germany12Ecuador

Elo change: Germany -38

Pre-game: 42% / 27% / 32%

Ecuador goals →
012345+
Germany goals08.2%9.4%5.4%2.0%0.6%
111.2%12.7%7.3%2.8%0.8%
27.6%8.6%4.9%1.9%0.5%
33.4%3.9%2.2%0.8%
41.2%1.3%0.8%
5+0.5%

Gold = actual result (1–2).

Click a team name to view their stats.

CountryGrpElo Δ1st (grp)2nd (grp)3rd (adv)R32R16QFSFFinalWin
EcuadorE+38+18.3%+54.9%+73.2%+30.0%+15.4%+7.5%+3.5%+1.7%
ColombiaK+0+0.1%-0.1%+0.2%+0.4%+0.3%+0.3%+0.3%
United StatesD+0-0.5%-0.7%-0.2%+0.3%+0.3%
NetherlandsF+0+0.2%-0.3%+0.6%+0.3%+0.3%+0.2%+0.2%
JapanF+0-0.3%+0.4%+0.2%+0.3%+0.1%
BelgiumG+0-0.1%+0.6%-0.6%-0.2%-0.2%-0.1%
SpainH+0+0.3%-0.2%+0.4%
CanadaB+0+0.3%+0.3%+0.3%+0.1%
SwitzerlandB+0+0.1%
South AfricaA+0-0.3%-0.1%
UruguayH+0-0.1%-0.1%-0.3%-0.5%+0.5%+0.2%+0.1%+0.1%
EgyptG+0-0.1%+0.5%+0.4%+0.2%+0.1%
MoroccoC+0-0.2%-0.3%+0.1%
Saudi ArabiaH+0+0.2%+0.1%+0.4%+0.1%
JordanJ+0-0.2%-0.2%
GhanaL+0-0.2%+0.5%-0.4%-0.1%+0.1%
IraqI+0-2.3%-2.3%-0.4%-0.1%
CuraçaoE+0-14.5%+14.3%-0.2%-0.3%
New ZealandG+0+0.2%
UzbekistanK+0-1.9%-1.9%-0.6%-0.3%
PanamaL+0-0.2%-0.2%
TurkeyD+0-0.8%-0.8%-0.2%
SenegalI+0-4.3%-4.3%-0.9%-0.7%-0.4%-0.1%
Cabo VerdeH+0-0.2%-0.4%-0.5%
DR CongoK+0-0.2%-0.3%+0.1%+0.2%
IranG+0-0.5%-0.6%-1.0%-0.6%-0.3%
ArgentinaJ+0-0.4%-0.1%-0.3%
SwedenF+0-0.1%-3.1%-3.1%+0.4%+0.3%
Bosnia and HerzegovinaB+0+0.5%+0.2%
ParaguayD+0-0.1%-5.3%-5.4%-1.6%-0.6%-0.4%-0.2%
CroatiaL+0-0.3%-2.4%-2.7%-1.0%-0.8%-0.5%-0.1%
AustraliaD+0-4.0%-3.9%-0.8%-0.6%-0.4%-0.2%
Ivory CoastE+0-3.7%-8.3%-12.0%-3.4%-1.3%-0.4%-0.1%
South KoreaA+0-6.8%-6.8%-3.7%-1.0%-0.4%-0.2%
BrazilC+0-0.4%-0.5%-0.5%-0.2%
AlgeriaJ+0-0.3%-6.6%-6.9%-2.3%-0.9%-0.3%-0.1%
ScotlandC+0-17.6%-17.6%-3.1%-1.3%-0.5%-0.3%
EnglandL+0+0.3%-0.2%-0.7%-0.5%-0.5%-0.2%
AustriaJ+0+0.3%-3.3%-3.0%-1.8%-1.0%-0.4%-0.2%-0.1%
FranceI+0+0.2%-0.2%-1.5%-0.2%
PortugalK+0-0.1%+0.2%-0.2%-0.2%-0.3%
NorwayI+0-0.2%+0.2%-4.3%-2.1%-1.2%-0.6%-0.3%
MexicoA+0-3.5%-2.3%-1.1%-0.5%-0.3%
GermanyE-38-1.4%-1.8%-1.5%-1.4%-0.6%