Elo Forecast

World Cup 2026

Spain10Uruguay

Elo change: Spain +10

Pre-game: 56% / 24% / 20%

Uruguay goals →
012345+
Spain goals07.5%6.7%3.0%0.9%
112.7%11.3%5.1%1.5%
210.8%9.7%4.3%1.3%
36.1%5.5%2.4%0.7%
42.6%2.3%1.0%
5+1.2%1.1%0.5%

Gold = actual result (1–0).

Click a team name to view their stats.

CountryGrpElo Δ1st (grp)2nd (grp)3rd (adv)R32R16QFSFFinalWin
SpainH+10+18.1%-11.1%-7.0%+4.7%+2.0%+2.2%+1.5%+0.9%
ArgentinaJ+0+7.5%+5.1%+3.0%+2.1%+0.9%
BelgiumG+0-0.2%+1.9%+1.8%+1.1%+0.9%+0.6%+0.4%+0.2%
South KoreaA+0+15.6%+15.6%+7.7%+2.7%+0.8%+0.3%+0.2%
JapanF+0+0.3%+0.1%+0.1%
CroatiaL+0+0.4%+2.3%+2.8%+1.4%+0.2%+0.2%
IranG+0-0.3%+0.5%+2.1%+2.3%+1.3%+0.5%+0.1%+0.2%
SwitzerlandB+0+0.1%+0.2%
SenegalI+0+2.0%+2.0%+1.4%+0.6%+0.3%
BrazilC+0-0.3%+0.4%+0.3%
AustraliaD+0
Saudi ArabiaH+0+6.0%-5.9%+0.2%-1.5%-0.4%-0.1%
New ZealandG+0-0.1%
UzbekistanK+0+0.1%+0.1%
ScotlandC+0+1.8%+1.8%+0.3%+0.1%
JordanJ+0+0.2%+0.2%
PanamaL+0+0.3%+0.3%+0.1%
MoroccoC+0+0.1%-0.2%-0.1%
Ivory CoastE+0+0.8%+0.2%
South AfricaA+0+0.5%
DR CongoK+0+0.2%+0.1%
Bosnia and HerzegovinaB+0-0.5%+0.1%-0.2%
EgyptG+0+0.2%-0.2%+0.4%+0.3%-0.1%
EnglandL+0-0.2%-0.7%-0.5%-0.3%
CanadaB+0-0.5%-0.1%-0.1%-0.2%
GhanaL+0-0.4%+0.5%-0.4%
EcuadorE+0-1.7%-0.6%
SwedenF+0+0.2%
Cabo VerdeH+0-3.0%+13.5%-8.0%+2.6%-3.3%-1.0%-0.3%
AlgeriaJ+0+2.2%+2.3%-1.5%-0.5%-0.4%-0.1%
FranceI+0-0.2%-0.3%-0.6%
NetherlandsF+0-0.1%+0.3%+0.4%
ParaguayD+0+0.2%+0.2%+0.3%+0.2%-0.1%
United StatesD+0+0.5%+1.0%-0.6%-0.1%
ColombiaK+0+0.3%-0.7%-0.5%-0.2%-0.1%
AustriaJ+0+5.1%+5.0%-1.3%-0.3%-0.3%-0.2%-0.1%
MexicoA+0+0.4%-0.2%-0.2%
GermanyE+0-0.2%-0.1%-0.2%-0.2%
PortugalK+0+0.1%-0.2%-1.0%-0.4%-0.3%-0.2%
NorwayI+0-0.8%-0.5%-0.4%-0.4%-0.3%
UruguayH-10-15.1%-8.5%-13.6%-37.2%-16.9%-8.1%-3.7%-1.7%-0.7%