Elo Forecast

World Cup 2026

Spain1–0Uruguay

Elo change: Spain +10

Pre-game: 56% / 24% / 20%

Uruguay goals →
012345+
← Spain goals07.5%6.7%3.0%0.9%
112.7%11.3%5.1%1.5%
210.8%9.7%4.3%1.3%
36.1%5.5%2.4%0.7%
42.6%2.3%1.0%
5+1.2%1.1%0.5%

Gold = actual result (1–0).

Click a team name to view their stats.

CountryGrpElo Δ1st (grp)2nd (grp)3rd (adv)R32R16QFSFFinalWin ▼
SpainH+10+18.1%-11.1%-7.0%—+4.7%+2.0%+2.2%+1.5%+0.9%
ArgentinaJ+0————+7.5%+5.1%+3.0%+2.1%+0.9%
BelgiumG+0—-0.2%+1.9%+1.8%+1.1%+0.9%+0.6%+0.4%+0.2%
South KoreaA+0——+15.6%+15.6%+7.7%+2.7%+0.8%+0.3%+0.2%
JapanF+0————+0.3%——+0.1%+0.1%
CroatiaL+0—+0.4%+2.3%+2.8%+1.4%+0.2%+0.2%——
IranG+0-0.3%+0.5%+2.1%+2.3%+1.3%+0.5%+0.1%+0.2%—
SwitzerlandB+0————+0.1%——+0.2%—
SenegalI+0——+2.0%+2.0%+1.4%+0.6%+0.3%——
BrazilC+0————-0.3%+0.4%+0.3%——
AustraliaD+0—————————
Saudi ArabiaH+0—+6.0%-5.9%+0.2%-1.5%-0.4%-0.1%——
New ZealandG+0————-0.1%————
UzbekistanK+0——+0.1%+0.1%—————
ScotlandC+0——+1.8%+1.8%+0.3%+0.1%———
JordanJ+0——+0.2%+0.2%—————
PanamaL+0——+0.3%+0.3%+0.1%————
MoroccoC+0————+0.1%-0.2%-0.1%——
Ivory CoastE+0————+0.8%—+0.2%——
South AfricaA+0————+0.5%————
DR CongoK+0——+0.2%+0.1%—————
Bosnia and HerzegovinaB+0————-0.5%+0.1%-0.2%——
EgyptG+0+0.2%-0.2%——+0.4%+0.3%-0.1%——
EnglandL+0————-0.2%-0.7%-0.5%-0.3%—
CanadaB+0————-0.5%-0.1%-0.1%-0.2%—
GhanaL+0—-0.4%+0.5%——-0.4%———
EcuadorE+0————-1.7%-0.6%———
SwedenF+0————+0.2%————
Cabo VerdeH+0-3.0%+13.5%-8.0%+2.6%-3.3%-1.0%-0.3%——
AlgeriaJ+0——+2.2%+2.3%-1.5%-0.5%-0.4%-0.1%—
FranceI+0————-0.2%—-0.3%-0.6%—
NetherlandsF+0————-0.1%+0.3%+0.4%——
ParaguayD+0——+0.2%+0.2%+0.3%—+0.2%—-0.1%
United StatesD+0————+0.5%+1.0%-0.6%—-0.1%
ColombiaK+0————+0.3%-0.7%-0.5%-0.2%-0.1%
AustriaJ+0——+5.1%+5.0%-1.3%-0.3%-0.3%-0.2%-0.1%
MexicoA+0————+0.4%——-0.2%-0.2%
GermanyE+0————-0.2%-0.1%—-0.2%-0.2%
PortugalK+0—+0.1%——-0.2%-1.0%-0.4%-0.3%-0.2%
NorwayI+0————-0.8%-0.5%-0.4%-0.4%-0.3%
UruguayH-10-15.1%-8.5%-13.6%-37.2%-16.9%-8.1%-3.7%-1.7%-0.7%