Elo Forecast

World Cup 2026

Senegal5–0Iraq

Elo change: Senegal +25

Pre-game: 52% / 25% / 23%

Iraq goals →
012345+
← Senegal goals07.6%7.3%3.5%1.1%
112.2%11.8%5.7%1.8%
29.9%9.5%4.6%1.5%
35.3%5.1%2.5%0.8%
42.1%2.1%1.0%
5+0.9%0.9%

Gold = actual result (5–0).

Click a team name to view their stats.

CountryGrpElo Δ1st (grp)2nd (grp)3rd (adv)R32R16QFSFFinalWin ▼
SenegalI+25——+63.6%+63.6%+28.3%+13.8%+6.0%+2.7%+1.2%
MexicoA+0————-2.5%-1.0%-0.5%+0.2%+0.2%
NorwayI+0————+0.6%+0.4%+0.2%+0.1%+0.1%
EgyptG+0————-0.5%-0.2%—+0.1%—
AustraliaD+0————+0.3%+0.3%+0.1%——
ColombiaK+0+0.3%-0.3%——-0.4%————
NetherlandsF+0——————+0.2%-0.2%—
Cabo VerdeH+0+0.1%-0.2%-1.9%-2.0%+0.2%+0.1%———
UruguayH+0+0.1%+0.1%-3.0%-2.7%+0.4%+0.6%+0.2%——
DR CongoK+0——-0.3%-0.2%—————
SpainH+0-0.3%+0.2%+0.1%—+0.4%+0.7%+0.4%+0.2%—
GermanyE+0————+0.4%—-0.1%——
GhanaL+0—+0.5%-0.5%—-0.2%————
IraqI-25——-1.1%-1.1%-0.2%————
New ZealandG+0—-0.1%+0.1%—-0.1%————
UzbekistanK+0——-0.4%-0.4%-0.2%————
Saudi ArabiaH+0————+0.6%————
JordanJ+0——-0.3%-0.3%—————
PanamaL+0——-0.5%-0.5%-0.1%————
BrazilC+0————-0.3%-0.5%-0.2%-0.2%—
South AfricaA+0————-0.7%-0.1%———
Bosnia and HerzegovinaB+0————+0.3%————
SwitzerlandB+0————-0.8%-0.7%-0.3%-0.2%—
Ivory CoastE+0————-0.6%+0.1%-0.1%——
CroatiaL+0-0.1%-0.4%-3.9%-4.3%-1.8%-1.0%-0.5%——
ScotlandC+0——-9.1%-9.1%-1.8%-0.7%-0.3%-0.1%—
SwedenF+0————-0.2%————
ArgentinaJ+0————-0.2%-0.1%—-0.2%—
AlgeriaJ+0——-4.7%-4.7%-1.6%-0.7%-0.2%-0.1%—
JapanF+0————+0.3%————
IranG+0—-0.2%-3.0%-3.1%-1.6%-0.5%-0.4%-0.2%—
United StatesD+0————-0.3%-1.5%-0.5%-0.2%—
CanadaB+0————+0.7%-0.2%-0.3%-0.1%—
FranceI+0————+0.2%——+0.2%-0.1%
MoroccoC+0—————+0.3%+0.4%—-0.1%
PortugalK+0-0.3%+0.2%——-0.3%-0.2%-0.4%-0.3%-0.1%
ParaguayD+0————-0.4%+0.1%——-0.1%
AustriaJ+0——-6.9%-6.9%-2.7%-1.3%-0.6%-0.3%-0.2%
EnglandL+0+0.1%———+0.9%———-0.2%
BelgiumG+0-0.2%+0.3%-2.4%-2.3%-1.7%-1.3%-0.7%-0.3%-0.2%
EcuadorE+0————-2.0%-1.3%-0.7%-0.3%-0.2%
South KoreaA+0——-25.7%-25.7%-12.4%-4.8%-1.6%-0.6%-0.2%