Elo Forecast

World Cup 2026

Senegal50Iraq

Elo change: Senegal +25

Pre-game: 52% / 25% / 23%

Iraq goals →
012345+
Senegal goals07.6%7.3%3.5%1.1%
112.2%11.8%5.7%1.8%
29.9%9.5%4.6%1.5%
35.3%5.1%2.5%0.8%
42.1%2.1%1.0%
5+0.9%0.9%

Gold = actual result (5–0).

Click a team name to view their stats.

CountryGrpElo Δ1st (grp)2nd (grp)3rd (adv)R32R16QFSFFinalWin
SenegalI+25+63.6%+63.6%+28.3%+13.8%+6.0%+2.7%+1.2%
MexicoA+0-2.5%-1.0%-0.5%+0.2%+0.2%
NorwayI+0+0.6%+0.4%+0.2%+0.1%+0.1%
EgyptG+0-0.5%-0.2%+0.1%
AustraliaD+0+0.3%+0.3%+0.1%
ColombiaK+0+0.3%-0.3%-0.4%
NetherlandsF+0+0.2%-0.2%
Cabo VerdeH+0+0.1%-0.2%-1.9%-2.0%+0.2%+0.1%
UruguayH+0+0.1%+0.1%-3.0%-2.7%+0.4%+0.6%+0.2%
DR CongoK+0-0.3%-0.2%
SpainH+0-0.3%+0.2%+0.1%+0.4%+0.7%+0.4%+0.2%
GermanyE+0+0.4%-0.1%
GhanaL+0+0.5%-0.5%-0.2%
IraqI-25-1.1%-1.1%-0.2%
New ZealandG+0-0.1%+0.1%-0.1%
UzbekistanK+0-0.4%-0.4%-0.2%
Saudi ArabiaH+0+0.6%
JordanJ+0-0.3%-0.3%
PanamaL+0-0.5%-0.5%-0.1%
BrazilC+0-0.3%-0.5%-0.2%-0.2%
South AfricaA+0-0.7%-0.1%
Bosnia and HerzegovinaB+0+0.3%
SwitzerlandB+0-0.8%-0.7%-0.3%-0.2%
Ivory CoastE+0-0.6%+0.1%-0.1%
CroatiaL+0-0.1%-0.4%-3.9%-4.3%-1.8%-1.0%-0.5%
ScotlandC+0-9.1%-9.1%-1.8%-0.7%-0.3%-0.1%
SwedenF+0-0.2%
ArgentinaJ+0-0.2%-0.1%-0.2%
AlgeriaJ+0-4.7%-4.7%-1.6%-0.7%-0.2%-0.1%
JapanF+0+0.3%
IranG+0-0.2%-3.0%-3.1%-1.6%-0.5%-0.4%-0.2%
United StatesD+0-0.3%-1.5%-0.5%-0.2%
CanadaB+0+0.7%-0.2%-0.3%-0.1%
FranceI+0+0.2%+0.2%-0.1%
MoroccoC+0+0.3%+0.4%-0.1%
PortugalK+0-0.3%+0.2%-0.3%-0.2%-0.4%-0.3%-0.1%
ParaguayD+0-0.4%+0.1%-0.1%
AustriaJ+0-6.9%-6.9%-2.7%-1.3%-0.6%-0.3%-0.2%
EnglandL+0+0.1%+0.9%-0.2%
BelgiumG+0-0.2%+0.3%-2.4%-2.3%-1.7%-1.3%-0.7%-0.3%-0.2%
EcuadorE+0-2.0%-1.3%-0.7%-0.3%-0.2%
South KoreaA+0-25.7%-25.7%-12.4%-4.8%-1.6%-0.6%-0.2%