Elo Forecast

World Cup 2026

France4–1Norway

Elo change: France +33

Pre-game: 45% / 27% / 28%

Norway goals →
012345+
← France goals09.2%9.4%4.8%1.6%
112.6%12.8%6.5%2.2%0.6%
28.6%8.8%4.5%1.5%
33.9%4.0%2.0%0.7%
41.3%1.4%0.7%
5+0.5%0.5%

Gold = actual result (4–1).

Click a team name to view their stats.

CountryGrpElo Δ1st (grp)2nd (grp)3rd (adv)R32R16QFSFFinalWin ▼
FranceI+33+27.8%-27.8%——+4.5%+6.4%+5.7%+3.8%+2.4%
EnglandL+0-0.1%————+0.3%+0.6%+0.2%+0.2%
EcuadorE+0——————+0.3%+0.1%+0.2%
BelgiumG+0+0.3%——+0.2%-0.3%+0.3%+0.3%+0.2%+0.1%
MoroccoC+0————-0.1%+0.1%-0.4%-0.2%+0.1%
JapanF+0————-0.5%+0.9%+0.1%+0.2%—
BrazilC+0————+0.5%+2.0%+0.9%+0.6%—
Ivory CoastE+0————+3.5%+1.3%+0.7%+0.3%—
SwitzerlandB+0————+0.9%+0.6%—+0.2%—
South KoreaA+0——+0.3%+0.3%+0.3%+0.2%———
ColombiaK+0+0.1%-0.1%——+0.3%+0.4%+0.2%——
IranG+0——+0.1%—-0.3%-0.5%—-0.1%—
AustraliaD+0————+0.1%—+0.1%+0.1%—
AlgeriaJ+0—-0.3%-0.3%-0.6%—-0.1%———
JordanJ+0—————————
PanamaL+0——+0.1%+0.1%—————
GhanaL+0-0.1%+0.3%-0.1%—+0.4%+0.3%+0.1%——
New ZealandG+0——-0.1%-0.2%—————
Bosnia and HerzegovinaB+0—————-0.3%———
AustriaJ+0—+0.3%—+0.4%—-0.2%—-0.1%—
DR CongoK+0————-0.2%————
Saudi ArabiaH+0—+0.1%—+0.1%—————
CanadaB+0————-0.5%—-0.6%-0.2%—
ScotlandC+0————-0.1%————
South AfricaA+0————+0.5%-0.1%-0.5%——
Cabo VerdeH+0———-0.1%—————
MexicoA+0————-0.2%—+0.6%——
PortugalK+0-0.1%+0.2%———-0.1%+0.2%——
SenegalI+0——-0.4%-0.4%-0.2%-0.2%-0.2%——
ParaguayD+0————+0.5%-2.3%-1.3%-0.5%—
SwedenF+0————-6.3%-2.6%-1.1%-0.4%-0.1%
EgyptG+0-0.2%———-0.6%-0.7%-0.1%-0.2%-0.1%
UruguayH+0————-0.1%-0.3%-0.1%-0.1%-0.1%
GermanyE+0————-0.5%-2.9%-1.7%-0.6%-0.2%
CroatiaL+0+0.3%-0.4%+0.3%+0.2%———-0.3%-0.3%
NetherlandsF+0————+0.1%—-1.1%-0.4%-0.3%
United StatesD+0—————+0.6%—-0.7%-0.3%
SpainH+0+0.1%-0.2%——-0.2%——-0.7%-0.3%
ArgentinaJ+0————+0.3%—-0.5%+0.2%-0.5%
NorwayI-33-27.8%+27.8%——-1.7%-2.8%-2.3%-1.2%-0.6%