Elo Forecast

World Cup 2026

Ivory Coast1–0Ecuador

Elo change: Ivory Coast +48

Pre-game: 23% / 26% / 51%

Notable upset — Ivory Coast won as underdog (Elo gap: 243)

Ecuador goals →
012345+
← Ivory Coast goals08.8%13.2%10.0%5.0%1.9%0.7%
18.1%12.3%9.2%4.6%1.7%0.7%
23.8%5.7%4.3%2.1%0.8%
31.2%1.8%1.3%0.7%
4
5+

Gold = actual result (1–0).

Click a team name to view their stats.

CountryGrpElo Δ1st (grp)2nd (grp)3rd (adv)R32R16QFSFFinalWin ▼
Ivory CoastE+48+26.0%+19.3%-17.9%+27.4%+15.7%+7.0%+3.4%+1.4%+0.6%
FranceI+0-0.2%——-0.2%+0.8%+0.9%+0.8%+0.5%+0.2%
United StatesD+0-0.3%—+0.3%—-0.5%-0.1%—+0.2%+0.2%
NetherlandsF+0—+0.1%—+0.2%+0.2%+0.3%+0.2%+0.2%+0.2%
JapanF+0-0.3%+0.3%+0.2%+0.2%+0.1%+0.8%+0.5%+0.2%+0.2%
MoroccoC+0——-0.1%-0.1%+0.6%+0.6%+0.3%+0.3%+0.1%
EnglandL+0—-0.3%+0.3%—-0.5%-0.2%+0.1%+0.2%+0.1%
MexicoA+0-0.1%———-2.0%-0.7%-0.2%——
IranG+0——-0.8%-0.6%-0.2%——+0.2%—
BelgiumG+0+0.2%—-0.4%-0.2%+0.1%—+0.1%——
CroatiaL+0-0.1%+0.3%-0.3%——————
Czech RepublicA+0——-0.7%-0.6%-0.2%-0.1%———
ArgentinaJ+0+0.1%—-0.3%-0.1%—-0.1%-0.2%——
NorwayI+0—+0.3%-1.2%-0.8%+0.6%+0.4%+0.2%+0.1%—
SenegalI+0+0.3%-0.4%-0.2%-0.3%+0.8%+0.3%—-0.2%—
SwedenF+0+0.4%-0.1%-0.5%-0.3%—+0.2%+0.2%+0.1%—
ParaguayD+0—-0.2%-0.7%-1.0%-0.5%+0.1%———
IraqI+0-0.1%+0.1%-0.2%-0.2%+0.5%+0.2%+0.1%——
South AfricaA+0—+0.3%-0.7%-0.4%+0.2%————
BrazilC+0-0.2%-0.5%+0.4%-0.2%+0.3%+0.5%+0.2%——
DR CongoK+0—+0.1%-0.5%-0.4%—————
TunisiaF+0-0.1%-0.3%-0.4%-0.8%-0.3%————
UzbekistanK+0+0.1%—-0.3%-0.1%-0.2%————
GhanaL+0+0.1%—-0.8%-0.7%—————
PanamaL+0——-0.8%-0.8%-0.4%-0.2%———
QatarB+0—+0.2%-0.2%——————
CuraçaoE+0—+0.9%—+1.0%—————
HaitiC+0——-0.5%-0.4%+0.3%————
New ZealandG+0—+0.2%-0.4%-0.2%+0.3%+0.3%———
Saudi ArabiaH+0—+0.1%-0.9%-0.7%—————
JordanJ+0——-0.3%-0.4%—+0.1%———
Cabo VerdeH+0——-0.8%-0.8%—————
SpainH+0——-0.1%—-0.5%-0.6%-0.1%+0.2%—
Bosnia and HerzegovinaB+0+0.1%-0.5%—-0.4%-0.4%————
AlgeriaJ+0—+0.2%-0.3%-0.1%—————
EgyptG+0-0.3%-0.2%-0.3%-0.9%-0.7%-0.2%-0.1%-0.2%—
AustriaJ+0—-0.3%+0.2%—+0.3%+0.3%+0.2%+0.2%—
TurkeyD+0+0.1%+0.1%-0.4%-0.2%+0.9%+0.5%+0.3%——
GermanyE+0+6.1%-7.4%+1.1%-0.2%—-0.2%-0.2%-0.2%—
CanadaB+0——+0.3%+0.2%-0.4%-0.5%———
South KoreaA+0—-0.4%—-0.4%-0.6%-0.3%———
PortugalK+0-0.1%-0.1%—-0.2%-0.4%-0.4%-0.1%——
ColombiaK+0——-0.2%-0.2%-0.3%-0.6%-0.5%-0.1%—
UruguayH+0-0.1%—-0.4%-0.6%-0.2%-0.4%-0.2%-0.2%—
AustraliaD+0+0.2%+0.1%-0.4%—+0.4%+0.2%———
ScotlandC+0—+0.5%-1.3%-0.8%+0.2%+0.4%+0.2%-0.2%-0.1%
SwitzerlandB+0—+0.3%-0.1%—-0.6%-0.5%-0.3%-0.3%-0.2%
EcuadorE-48-32.2%-12.8%+30.4%-14.6%-14.0%-7.8%-5.2%-2.6%-1.5%