Elo Forecast

World Cup 2026

Netherlands2–2Japan

Elo change: Netherlands -4

Pre-game: 38% / 27% / 35%

Japan goals →
012345+
← Netherlands goals08.2%10.0%6.0%2.4%0.7%
110.6%12.8%7.7%3.1%0.9%
26.8%8.3%5.0%2.0%0.6%
32.9%3.5%2.1%0.9%
40.9%1.1%0.7%
5+

Gold = actual result (2–2).

Click a team name to view their stats.

CountryGrpElo Δ1st (grp)2nd (grp)3rd (adv)R32R16QFSFFinalWin ▼
SpainH+0-0.4%+0.4%——+0.4%+0.3%——+0.3%
SwitzerlandB+0—-0.2%-0.3%-0.5%-0.1%+0.4%+0.2%+0.2%+0.2%
UruguayH+0+0.3%——+0.4%-0.4%——+0.1%+0.2%
AlgeriaJ+0-0.1%-0.2%+0.1%-0.2%—+0.2%+0.2%+0.1%+0.1%
EcuadorE+0+0.5%-0.3%—+0.3%+0.3%—+0.1%+0.2%+0.1%
South KoreaA+0+0.4%-0.3%-0.3%-0.2%+0.2%+0.6%+0.4%—+0.1%
ColombiaK+0-0.1%——-0.2%—+0.2%+0.2%+0.2%—
AustraliaD+0-0.2%—+0.1%—-0.2%-0.1%———
SenegalI+0-0.3%+0.7%-0.1%+0.3%+0.3%+0.2%+0.2%+0.2%—
JapanF+4-2.5%+4.7%-0.8%+1.4%+1.1%+0.2%+0.2%+0.1%—
New ZealandG+0-0.1%-0.3%+0.2%-0.3%-0.4%-0.2%———
CanadaB+0+0.2%—-0.2%—+0.6%+0.5%———
FranceI+0+0.1%-0.1%-0.2%-0.3%—+0.2%+0.1%——
Cabo VerdeH+0—-0.2%—-0.2%+0.1%+0.1%———
EgyptG+0——+0.4%+0.6%+0.4%—+0.2%+0.1%—
UzbekistanK+0—————-0.2%———
CroatiaL+0—+0.2%—+0.2%—————
TunisiaF+0+2.5%-3.8%+1.3%—-0.1%————
ArgentinaJ+0—-0.3%+0.1%-0.1%+0.2%+0.5%+0.1%-0.1%—
IraqI+0—-0.1%-0.3%-0.4%-0.3%————
HaitiC+0—————————
MexicoA+0-0.4%+0.4%——-0.2%-0.3%———
CuraçaoE+0—————————
QatarB+0-0.1%-0.3%+0.2%-0.3%—————
JordanJ+0+0.1%-0.3%-0.2%-0.4%-0.3%-0.4%-0.1%——
GhanaL+0—+0.1%—+0.3%—————
ParaguayD+0+0.1%-0.2%-0.5%-0.6%—-0.3%———
TurkeyD+0———-0.1%-0.4%-0.4%-0.3%——
South AfricaA+0—+0.2%—+0.2%—+0.1%———
DR CongoK+0+0.2%-0.3%-0.2%-0.3%—-0.1%———
BelgiumG+0————-0.3%—+0.2%+0.2%—
Saudi ArabiaH+0—-0.3%+0.2%-0.1%—————
IranG+0—+0.2%-0.2%—-0.1%——-0.1%—
Bosnia and HerzegovinaB+0-0.2%+0.6%-0.2%+0.3%—————
GermanyE+0—+0.2%—+0.1%+0.8%+0.3%+0.3%+0.2%—
SwedenF+0+2.8%-4.6%+2.1%+0.3%-0.2%-0.1%———
ScotlandC+0+0.1%——+0.1%-0.2%-0.1%-0.1%——
AustriaJ+0—+0.8%-0.5%+0.2%—-0.2%-0.2%-0.2%—
Czech RepublicA+0—-0.2%-0.5%-0.8%-0.5%-0.2%-0.2%——
Ivory CoastE+0-0.5%+0.1%+0.4%—+0.2%-0.2%-0.1%-0.1%—
PanamaL+0-0.1%-0.1%+0.2%—+0.2%-0.1%-0.2%——
MoroccoC+0-0.2%——-0.1%-0.4%————
PortugalK+0—+0.2%-0.1%——-0.4%-0.5%-0.3%-0.1%
United StatesD+0+0.2%+0.1%-0.3%——-0.3%-0.2%—-0.2%
NorwayI+0+0.2%-0.4%+0.2%—-0.2%-0.2%—-0.1%-0.2%
NetherlandsF-4-2.9%+3.7%-0.3%+0.5%+0.7%———-0.2%
BrazilC+0+0.1%——+0.2%-0.4%—-0.2%-0.4%-0.2%
EnglandL+0—-0.2%-0.2%-0.4%-0.3%—-0.2%-0.2%-0.2%