Elo Forecast

World Cup 2026

Netherlands22Japan

Elo change: Netherlands -4

Pre-game: 38% / 27% / 35%

Japan goals →
012345+
Netherlands goals08.2%10.0%6.0%2.4%0.7%
110.6%12.8%7.7%3.1%0.9%
26.8%8.3%5.0%2.0%0.6%
32.9%3.5%2.1%0.9%
40.9%1.1%0.7%
5+

Gold = actual result (2–2).

Click a team name to view their stats.

CountryGrpElo Δ1st (grp)2nd (grp)3rd (adv)R32R16QFSFFinalWin
SpainH+0-0.4%+0.4%+0.4%+0.3%+0.3%
SwitzerlandB+0-0.2%-0.3%-0.5%-0.1%+0.4%+0.2%+0.2%+0.2%
UruguayH+0+0.3%+0.4%-0.4%+0.1%+0.2%
AlgeriaJ+0-0.1%-0.2%+0.1%-0.2%+0.2%+0.2%+0.1%+0.1%
EcuadorE+0+0.5%-0.3%+0.3%+0.3%+0.1%+0.2%+0.1%
South KoreaA+0+0.4%-0.3%-0.3%-0.2%+0.2%+0.6%+0.4%+0.1%
ColombiaK+0-0.1%-0.2%+0.2%+0.2%+0.2%
AustraliaD+0-0.2%+0.1%-0.2%-0.1%
SenegalI+0-0.3%+0.7%-0.1%+0.3%+0.3%+0.2%+0.2%+0.2%
JapanF+4-2.5%+4.7%-0.8%+1.4%+1.1%+0.2%+0.2%+0.1%
New ZealandG+0-0.1%-0.3%+0.2%-0.3%-0.4%-0.2%
CanadaB+0+0.2%-0.2%+0.6%+0.5%
FranceI+0+0.1%-0.1%-0.2%-0.3%+0.2%+0.1%
Cabo VerdeH+0-0.2%-0.2%+0.1%+0.1%
EgyptG+0+0.4%+0.6%+0.4%+0.2%+0.1%
UzbekistanK+0-0.2%
CroatiaL+0+0.2%+0.2%
TunisiaF+0+2.5%-3.8%+1.3%-0.1%
ArgentinaJ+0-0.3%+0.1%-0.1%+0.2%+0.5%+0.1%-0.1%
IraqI+0-0.1%-0.3%-0.4%-0.3%
HaitiC+0
MexicoA+0-0.4%+0.4%-0.2%-0.3%
CuraçaoE+0
QatarB+0-0.1%-0.3%+0.2%-0.3%
JordanJ+0+0.1%-0.3%-0.2%-0.4%-0.3%-0.4%-0.1%
GhanaL+0+0.1%+0.3%
ParaguayD+0+0.1%-0.2%-0.5%-0.6%-0.3%
TurkeyD+0-0.1%-0.4%-0.4%-0.3%
South AfricaA+0+0.2%+0.2%+0.1%
DR CongoK+0+0.2%-0.3%-0.2%-0.3%-0.1%
BelgiumG+0-0.3%+0.2%+0.2%
Saudi ArabiaH+0-0.3%+0.2%-0.1%
IranG+0+0.2%-0.2%-0.1%-0.1%
Bosnia and HerzegovinaB+0-0.2%+0.6%-0.2%+0.3%
GermanyE+0+0.2%+0.1%+0.8%+0.3%+0.3%+0.2%
SwedenF+0+2.8%-4.6%+2.1%+0.3%-0.2%-0.1%
ScotlandC+0+0.1%+0.1%-0.2%-0.1%-0.1%
AustriaJ+0+0.8%-0.5%+0.2%-0.2%-0.2%-0.2%
Czech RepublicA+0-0.2%-0.5%-0.8%-0.5%-0.2%-0.2%
Ivory CoastE+0-0.5%+0.1%+0.4%+0.2%-0.2%-0.1%-0.1%
PanamaL+0-0.1%-0.1%+0.2%+0.2%-0.1%-0.2%
MoroccoC+0-0.2%-0.1%-0.4%
PortugalK+0+0.2%-0.1%-0.4%-0.5%-0.3%-0.1%
United StatesD+0+0.2%+0.1%-0.3%-0.3%-0.2%-0.2%
NorwayI+0+0.2%-0.4%+0.2%-0.2%-0.2%-0.1%-0.2%
NetherlandsF-4-2.9%+3.7%-0.3%+0.5%+0.7%-0.2%
BrazilC+0+0.1%+0.2%-0.4%-0.2%-0.4%-0.2%
EnglandL+0-0.2%-0.2%-0.4%-0.3%-0.2%-0.2%-0.2%