Elo Forecast

World Cup 2026

United States41Paraguay

Elo change: United States +54

Pre-game: 41% / 28% / 31%

Mild upsetUnited States won as underdog (Elo gap: 108)

Paraguay goals →
012345+
United States goals010.2%10.6%5.5%1.9%0.5%
112.7%13.2%6.9%2.4%0.6%
27.9%8.2%4.3%1.5%
33.3%3.4%1.8%0.6%
41.0%1.1%0.6%
5+

Gold = actual result (4–1).

Click a team name to view their stats.

CountryGrpElo Δ1st (grp)2nd (grp)3rd (adv)R32R16QFSFFinalWin
United StatesD+54+34.1%+1.3%-8.7%+26.8%+24.1%+17.2%+8.3%+4.7%+2.4%
EcuadorE+0-0.3%+0.1%-0.2%+0.3%+0.2%+0.2%+0.4%+0.2%
GermanyE+0+0.1%-0.6%+0.3%-0.2%+0.4%-0.2%-0.1%+0.2%
CroatiaL+0+0.3%-0.1%-0.2%+0.2%+0.1%+0.2%
TunisiaF+0+0.3%-0.1%+0.1%+0.3%+0.4%+0.3%+0.2%
MoroccoC+0+0.5%-0.6%+0.3%+0.2%+0.2%
ColombiaK+0-0.1%+0.5%+0.3%+0.3%+0.2%-0.1%
IranG+0-0.5%+0.6%+0.2%-0.2%-0.6%-0.1%
ScotlandC+0-0.2%+0.6%+0.3%-0.3%+0.2%+0.2%
BrazilC+0-0.5%+0.4%-0.5%-0.3%-0.3%-0.1%
Bosnia and HerzegovinaB+0-0.2%-0.1%+0.1%-0.2%-1.4%-0.6%-0.2%
New ZealandG+0+0.2%+0.2%-0.3%-0.2%-0.1%
EnglandL+0-0.4%+0.7%-0.2%+0.6%+0.4%+0.2%+0.2%
AustraliaD+0-5.8%+2.5%+3.6%+0.4%-0.3%-0.3%+0.1%
PortugalK+0+0.3%+0.4%+0.2%+0.4%+0.2%
JordanJ+0+0.2%+0.3%-0.2%-0.2%
Czech RepublicA+0+0.2%-0.3%-0.1%
PanamaL+0+0.1%-0.4%+0.7%+0.4%-0.1%+0.2%
QatarB+0-0.1%-0.5%-0.1%
AlgeriaJ+0-0.1%-0.4%+0.4%-0.1%-0.2%-0.3%
GhanaL+0-0.2%-0.1%+0.2%
HaitiC+0+0.4%+0.2%+0.6%+0.2%+0.1%
CuraçaoE+0+0.2%+0.3%+0.5%+0.1%
Saudi ArabiaH+0-0.2%-0.2%-0.4%-0.2%-0.3%-0.1%
SwedenF+0-0.4%-0.3%+0.1%+0.3%+0.3%
Cabo VerdeH+0+0.6%+0.1%+0.7%+0.4%-0.1%
South AfricaA+0+0.3%+0.3%-0.2%
SpainH+0+0.2%-0.2%-0.3%-0.1%
AustriaJ+0+0.1%+0.2%-0.8%-0.3%-0.4%-0.1%
IraqI+0-0.1%-0.4%-0.2%
DR CongoK+0-0.3%+0.2%-0.1%-0.2%-0.2%
EgyptG+0+0.3%-0.3%+0.1%-0.3%-0.2%
UzbekistanK+0+0.1%+0.6%+0.6%+0.7%+0.2%-0.1%
FranceI+0-0.3%+0.2%-0.3%-0.2%
SenegalI+0+0.3%-0.2%+0.1%-0.2%-0.2%
Ivory CoastE+0+0.1%+0.3%-0.3%+0.2%-0.3%-0.3%-0.2%-0.1%
CanadaB+0+0.4%-0.4%-0.8%-0.4%-0.1%
JapanF+0+0.3%-0.3%+0.1%-0.3%-0.1%
South KoreaA+0-0.2%+0.2%-0.3%-0.7%-0.2%-0.2%-0.1%
NetherlandsF+0-0.3%+0.2%+0.1%+0.2%-0.2%-0.3%-0.2%
NorwayI+0-0.1%+0.1%-0.4%-0.4%-0.5%-0.3%-0.4%-0.2%-0.2%
ArgentinaJ+0+0.2%-0.2%-0.4%-0.5%-0.4%-0.2%
UruguayH+0-0.3%+0.4%+0.4%-0.1%-0.1%-0.2%-0.2%
SwitzerlandB+0+0.2%-0.3%+0.1%-1.0%-0.7%-0.2%-0.2%-0.2%
BelgiumG+0+0.2%-0.5%+0.4%-0.6%-0.4%-0.3%-0.2%
MexicoA+0+0.2%-0.1%-0.4%-0.4%-0.2%-0.2%
TurkeyD+0-9.1%+7.3%+1.2%-0.6%-0.8%-1.5%-0.4%-0.3%-0.3%
ParaguayD-54-19.3%-11.2%-0.4%-30.9%-18.8%-9.7%-4.3%-2.0%-0.9%