World Cup 2026
United States4–1Paraguay
Elo: United States +54 · Paraguay −54
Pre-game odds: United States 41% · Draw 28% · Paraguay 31%
Mild upset — United States won as underdog (Elo gap: 108 pts)
United States4–1Paraguay
Elo change: United States +54
Pre-game: 41% / 28% / 31%
Mild upset — United States won as underdog (Elo gap: 108)
| Paraguay goals → | |||||||
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ← United States goals | 0 | 10.2% | 10.6% | 5.5% | 1.9% | 0.5% | |
| 1 | 12.7% | 13.2% | 6.9% | 2.4% | 0.6% | ||
| 2 | 7.9% | 8.2% | 4.3% | 1.5% | |||
| 3 | 3.3% | 3.4% | 1.8% | 0.6% | |||
| 4 | 1.0% | 1.1% | 0.6% | ||||
| 5+ | |||||||
Gold = actual result (4–1).
Click a team name to view their stats.
| Country | Grp | Elo Δ | 1st (grp) | 2nd (grp) | 3rd (adv) | R32 | R16 | QF | SF | Final | Win ▼ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D | +54 | +34.1% | +1.3% | -8.7% | +26.8% | +24.1% | +17.2% | +8.3% | +4.7% | +2.4% | |
| E | +0 | -0.3% | +0.1% | — | -0.2% | +0.3% | +0.2% | +0.2% | +0.4% | +0.2% | |
| E | +0 | +0.1% | -0.6% | +0.3% | -0.2% | +0.4% | — | -0.2% | -0.1% | +0.2% | |
| L | +0 | +0.3% | -0.1% | -0.2% | — | +0.2% | +0.1% | — | +0.2% | — | |
| F | +0 | +0.3% | -0.1% | +0.1% | +0.3% | +0.4% | +0.3% | +0.2% | — | — | |
| C | +0 | +0.5% | -0.6% | +0.3% | +0.2% | — | — | +0.2% | — | — | |
| K | +0 | -0.1% | — | +0.5% | +0.3% | +0.3% | +0.2% | -0.1% | — | — | |
| G | +0 | -0.5% | +0.6% | — | +0.2% | -0.2% | -0.6% | -0.1% | — | — | |
| C | +0 | — | -0.2% | +0.6% | +0.3% | -0.3% | +0.2% | +0.2% | — | — | |
| C | +0 | -0.5% | +0.4% | — | — | -0.5% | -0.3% | -0.3% | -0.1% | — | |
| B | +0 | -0.2% | -0.1% | +0.1% | -0.2% | -1.4% | -0.6% | -0.2% | — | — | |
| G | +0 | — | +0.2% | — | +0.2% | -0.3% | -0.2% | -0.1% | — | — | |
| L | +0 | -0.4% | +0.7% | -0.2% | — | +0.6% | +0.4% | +0.2% | +0.2% | — | |
| D | +0 | -5.8% | +2.5% | +3.6% | +0.4% | -0.3% | -0.3% | — | +0.1% | — | |
| K | +0 | +0.3% | — | — | +0.4% | +0.2% | +0.4% | — | +0.2% | — | |
| J | +0 | — | +0.2% | — | +0.3% | -0.2% | -0.2% | — | — | — | |
| A | +0 | — | — | — | +0.2% | — | -0.3% | -0.1% | — | — | |
| L | +0 | +0.1% | -0.4% | +0.7% | +0.4% | -0.1% | +0.2% | — | — | — | |
| B | +0 | — | — | -0.1% | — | -0.5% | -0.1% | — | — | — | |
| J | +0 | -0.1% | -0.4% | +0.4% | -0.1% | -0.2% | -0.3% | — | — | — | |
| L | +0 | — | -0.2% | — | -0.1% | — | +0.2% | — | — | — | |
| C | +0 | — | +0.4% | +0.2% | +0.6% | +0.2% | +0.1% | — | — | — | |
| E | +0 | — | +0.2% | +0.3% | +0.5% | +0.1% | — | — | — | — | |
| H | +0 | — | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.4% | -0.2% | -0.3% | -0.1% | — | — | |
| F | +0 | — | -0.4% | — | -0.3% | +0.1% | +0.3% | +0.3% | — | — | |
| H | +0 | — | +0.6% | +0.1% | +0.7% | +0.4% | -0.1% | — | — | — | |
| A | +0 | — | — | +0.3% | +0.3% | — | -0.2% | — | — | — | |
| H | +0 | — | — | — | — | +0.2% | -0.2% | -0.3% | -0.1% | — | |
| J | +0 | +0.1% | — | — | +0.2% | -0.8% | -0.3% | -0.4% | -0.1% | — | |
| I | +0 | — | -0.1% | — | — | -0.4% | -0.2% | — | — | — | |
| K | +0 | -0.3% | +0.2% | — | -0.1% | -0.2% | — | -0.2% | — | — | |
| G | +0 | +0.3% | -0.3% | — | — | +0.1% | -0.3% | -0.2% | — | — | |
| K | +0 | +0.1% | — | +0.6% | +0.6% | +0.7% | +0.2% | -0.1% | — | — | |
| I | +0 | — | -0.3% | +0.2% | — | — | -0.3% | -0.2% | — | — | |
| I | +0 | — | +0.3% | -0.2% | +0.1% | -0.2% | — | — | -0.2% | — | |
| E | +0 | +0.1% | +0.3% | -0.3% | +0.2% | -0.3% | -0.3% | -0.2% | -0.1% | — | |
| B | +0 | — | +0.4% | -0.4% | — | -0.8% | -0.4% | — | -0.1% | — | |
| F | +0 | — | +0.3% | -0.3% | — | +0.1% | — | — | -0.3% | -0.1% | |
| A | +0 | -0.2% | — | +0.2% | — | -0.3% | -0.7% | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.1% | |
| F | +0 | -0.3% | +0.2% | +0.1% | — | +0.2% | — | -0.2% | -0.3% | -0.2% | |
| I | +0 | -0.1% | +0.1% | -0.4% | -0.4% | -0.5% | -0.3% | -0.4% | -0.2% | -0.2% | |
| J | +0 | — | +0.2% | — | — | -0.2% | -0.4% | -0.5% | -0.4% | -0.2% | |
| H | +0 | — | -0.3% | +0.4% | — | +0.4% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.2% | -0.2% | |
| B | +0 | +0.2% | -0.3% | +0.1% | — | -1.0% | -0.7% | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.2% | |
| G | +0 | +0.2% | -0.5% | +0.4% | — | — | -0.6% | -0.4% | -0.3% | -0.2% | |
| A | +0 | +0.2% | -0.1% | — | — | -0.4% | -0.4% | — | -0.2% | -0.2% | |
| D | +0 | -9.1% | +7.3% | +1.2% | -0.6% | -0.8% | -1.5% | -0.4% | -0.3% | -0.3% | |
| D | -54 | -19.3% | -11.2% | -0.4% | -30.9% | -18.8% | -9.7% | -4.3% | -2.0% | -0.9% |