Elo Forecast

World Cup 2026

Spain4–0Saudi Arabia

Elo change: Spain +5

Pre-game: 95% / 4% / 1%

Saudi Arabia goals →
012345+
← Spain goals00.9%
13.6%1.9%0.5%
27.7%4.0%1.0%
310.9%5.6%1.4%
411.6%5.9%1.5%
5+25.2%12.9%3.3%0.6%

Gold = actual result (4–0).

Click a team name to view their stats.

CountryGrpElo Δ1st (grp)2nd (grp)3rd (adv)R32R16QFSFFinalWin ▼
SpainH+5+13.2%-2.7%-5.8%+4.7%+3.8%+3.2%+2.8%+1.8%+1.0%
BrazilC+0+0.5%-0.6%——+0.5%+0.4%+0.3%+0.2%+0.3%
MexicoA+0————+0.4%+0.7%+0.4%+0.1%+0.2%
NorwayI+0—-0.2%+0.3%+0.1%+0.5%+0.4%+0.3%+0.2%+0.1%
PortugalK+0—+0.1%-0.1%—-0.2%-0.3%—+0.2%—
CanadaB+0+0.2%-0.2%——+0.4%-0.1%+0.3%+0.3%—
South KoreaA+0——+0.1%—-0.4%—+0.1%——
EcuadorE+0—-0.3%—-0.4%—-0.1%———
DR CongoK+0—+0.2%—+0.3%+0.3%-0.3%———
AustriaJ+0————-2.6%-1.2%-0.5%-0.1%—
UruguayH+0-5.5%+6.0%-0.3%+0.2%-0.4%-0.1%———
ScotlandC+0—-0.1%+0.2%—-0.1%-0.2%—-0.1%—
TurkeyD+0——-0.3%-0.3%—————
IranG+0+0.2%-0.1%-0.2%—+0.2%+0.2%+0.1%+0.2%—
Cabo VerdeH+0-3.3%+4.3%—+0.9%-0.3%+0.1%———
QatarB+0——-0.1%-0.1%—————
South AfricaA+0—————-0.1%———
GhanaL+0—-0.6%+0.2%-0.4%-0.1%-0.5%———
CuraçaoE+0—+0.4%-0.1%+0.3%—————
IraqI+0——-0.2%-0.1%—————
UzbekistanK+0—-0.1%+0.2%+0.2%—————
NetherlandsF+0+0.3%-0.4%——+0.6%+0.7%+0.4%——
ColombiaK+0-0.2%-0.2%+0.3%—-0.1%————
PanamaL+0—+0.1%-0.3%-0.2%+0.2%-0.1%———
JordanJ+0——+0.2%+0.2%—————
Czech RepublicA+0——+0.3%+0.4%+0.3%————
Bosnia and HerzegovinaB+0——-0.1%———-0.1%——
Saudi ArabiaH-5-4.5%-7.6%+4.6%-7.4%-0.9%-0.4%-0.2%——
United StatesD+0————-0.2%+0.5%-0.8%-0.5%—
New ZealandG+0-0.2%-0.5%—-0.7%-0.2%————
AustraliaD+0—+0.2%-0.2%—+0.2%+0.2%———
CroatiaL+0—+0.5%+0.2%+0.6%+0.4%-0.6%-0.3%——
SenegalI+0——+0.7%+0.8%+0.6%+0.5%+0.3%+0.1%—
AlgeriaJ+0——+0.3%+0.3%-0.6%-0.4%-0.3%-0.1%—
SwitzerlandB+0-0.2%+0.2%——+0.2%-0.2%———
MoroccoC+0-0.5%+0.7%-0.3%—-0.4%————
FranceI+0————-0.1%-0.1%—-0.5%—
GermanyE+0——————-0.2%——
EgyptG+0+0.2%+0.3%-0.1%+0.4%+0.3%+0.2%-0.1%—-0.1%
Ivory CoastE+0—-0.1%+0.1%——-0.3%-0.2%-0.1%-0.1%
SwedenF+0-0.2%+0.4%—+0.3%+0.2%—-0.2%-0.2%-0.1%
EnglandL+0————-0.3%-0.5%-0.5%-0.4%-0.1%
BelgiumG+0-0.3%+0.3%+0.2%+0.3%+0.3%—-0.1%—-0.1%
ParaguayD+0—-0.1%———-0.3%-0.4%-0.2%-0.2%
JapanF+0-0.2%—+0.2%—-0.5%-0.1%—-0.3%-0.2%
ArgentinaJ+0————-1.7%-1.3%-0.7%-0.2%-0.3%