Elo Forecast

World Cup 2026

England0–0Ghana

Elo change: England -27

Pre-game: 85% / 10% / 4%

Major upset — draw — England failed to win (Elo gap: 498)

Ghana goals →
012345+
← England goals03.0%1.6%
18.9%4.9%1.3%
213.2%7.2%2.0%
313.0%7.1%1.9%
49.6%5.2%1.4%
5+10.3%5.6%1.5%

Gold = actual result (0–0).

Click a team name to view their stats.

CountryGrpElo Δ1st (grp)2nd (grp)3rd (adv)R32R16QFSFFinalWin ▼
FranceI+0-0.3%+0.3%———+0.5%+0.6%+0.6%+0.3%
ColombiaK+0-0.2%+0.2%-0.2%-0.2%-1.1%-0.6%-0.1%+0.2%+0.3%
NetherlandsF+0—-0.1%——+0.6%+0.5%+0.3%+0.3%+0.2%
ArgentinaJ+0————-0.2%+0.3%+0.3%+0.5%+0.2%
MexicoA+0-0.1%+0.1%——+0.3%+2.6%+1.0%+0.4%+0.1%
JapanF+0—+0.1%—+0.1%+0.4%+0.1%+0.3%+0.2%+0.1%
United StatesD+0————-0.4%-0.4%—+0.1%+0.1%
UruguayH+0+0.2%—-0.6%-0.4%—————
CanadaB+0-0.3%+0.3%——+0.4%+0.1%———
DR CongoK+0—-0.2%+0.4%+0.2%+2.7%+0.8%+0.2%+0.2%—
SwedenF+0——-0.9%-1.0%-0.6%-0.2%———
GhanaL+27+7.7%+16.4%—+24.0%+10.1%+2.9%+0.8%+0.3%—
IranG+0+0.3%—-0.8%-0.5%-0.3%+0.1%+0.1%——
BrazilC+0+0.5%-0.6%——-0.5%+0.1%+0.4%+0.2%—
BelgiumG+0—+0.3%-0.3%——-0.2%-0.2%-0.1%—
UzbekistanK+0——-0.9%-0.9%+0.4%+0.2%———
Ivory CoastE+0——-0.8%-0.7%-0.4%-0.4%+0.1%——
SenegalI+0——-1.4%-1.4%+0.8%————
TurkeyD+0——-0.5%-0.5%-0.2%-0.1%———
PortugalK+0+0.2%—-0.1%———-0.3%-0.1%—
South AfricaA+0—+0.3%—+0.2%—————
EcuadorE+0—————-0.2%———
Czech RepublicA+0——+0.2%+0.2%+0.1%————
New ZealandG+0—+0.1%-0.3%-0.2%—————
Saudi ArabiaH+0——+0.1%—+0.1%————
PanamaL+0+3.1%-3.9%+0.4%-0.4%—————
SwitzerlandB+0+0.3%-0.3%——-0.2%—+0.2%+0.2%—
CuraçaoE+0—————————
Bosnia and HerzegovinaB+0——+0.2%+0.1%+0.2%————
QatarB+0——-0.2%-0.2%—-0.1%———
HaitiC+0—————————
IraqI+0——-1.1%-1.1%—————
Cabo VerdeH+0—-0.1%—-0.1%—————
South KoreaA+0+0.1%-0.4%-0.8%-1.0%+0.1%+0.4%+0.2%——
MoroccoC+0-0.4%+0.4%——-0.2%-0.3%—-0.1%—
AustraliaD+0——-1.4%-1.4%-0.8%-0.6%-0.2%——
EgyptG+0-0.3%-0.4%+0.5%-0.2%-0.1%+0.3%+0.2%——
ScotlandC+0-0.2%+0.2%-2.4%-2.4%-1.0%-0.2%———
AlgeriaJ+0——-2.3%-2.3%-0.8%-0.2%-0.2%——
GermanyE+0————+0.2%-0.3%-0.2%-0.2%—
ParaguayD+0——-1.5%-1.5%-0.9%-0.5%-0.3%-0.2%—
AustriaJ+0——-1.6%-1.6%-0.9%-0.2%-0.3%-0.2%-0.1%
NorwayI+0+0.3%-0.3%——+0.3%+0.2%+0.4%-0.3%-0.2%
CroatiaL+0+5.9%-26.4%+13.6%-6.8%-3.2%-0.6%-0.7%-0.4%-0.2%
SpainH+0-0.2%+0.2%——-0.1%—-0.2%-0.3%-0.2%
EnglandL-27-16.7%+13.9%+2.9%+0.1%-4.7%-4.2%-2.7%-1.4%-1.1%