Elo Forecast

World Cup 2026

Brazil11Morocco

Elo change: Brazil -13

Pre-game: 46% / 26% / 29%

Mild upsetdraw — Brazil failed to win (Elo gap: 164)

Morocco goals →
012345+
Brazil goals07.0%8.0%4.6%1.7%0.5%
110.6%12.1%6.9%2.6%0.8%
28.0%9.2%5.3%2.0%0.6%
34.1%4.7%2.7%1.0%
41.5%1.8%1.0%
5+0.6%0.7%

Gold = actual result (1–1).

Click a team name to view their stats.

CountryGrpElo Δ1st (grp)2nd (grp)3rd (adv)R32R16QFSFFinalWin
MoroccoC+13-1.1%+4.3%+0.3%+3.5%+2.5%+1.5%+0.9%+0.5%+0.3%
EnglandL+0-0.1%+0.2%-0.3%-0.3%-0.2%+0.3%+0.4%+0.3%+0.3%
JapanF+0+0.2%+0.2%+0.1%+0.5%+0.1%+0.1%+0.1%
IranG+0-0.3%-0.1%+0.2%-0.3%-0.2%+0.2%+0.1%+0.1%
UruguayH+0-0.4%-0.5%-0.6%-0.8%-0.2%+0.1%
NorwayI+0+0.3%-0.3%+0.2%+0.1%+0.3%+0.3%+0.1%+0.1%
ParaguayD+0-0.2%+0.3%+0.1%+0.5%+0.2%+0.1%
AustriaJ+0-0.3%+0.6%-0.4%-0.1%
ColombiaK+0-0.1%+0.1%+0.1%+0.2%+0.2%
ArgentinaJ+0+0.6%-0.6%+0.4%+0.5%
AlgeriaJ+0-0.2%-0.1%-0.2%-0.5%+0.2%+0.1%
SwitzerlandB+0+0.2%-0.2%+0.2%-0.1%+0.1%
United StatesD+0+0.1%-0.2%+0.2%+0.3%+0.1%
UzbekistanK+0-0.1%+0.1%+0.3%
Czech RepublicA+0+0.4%+0.3%+0.2%+0.1%
SwedenF+0+0.2%-0.2%-0.2%-0.2%-0.2%
Cabo VerdeH+0+0.1%-0.5%-0.3%
JordanJ+0-0.1%+0.1%-0.1%
EcuadorE+0+0.2%-0.4%+0.4%+0.2%+0.2%
Saudi ArabiaH+0+0.1%+0.1%+0.3%
TunisiaF+0-0.3%+0.1%-0.1%-0.3%+0.5%+0.2%+0.1%
South AfricaA+0-0.5%-0.5%-0.5%
QatarB+0+0.1%-0.1%+0.1%
CuraçaoE+0-0.2%-0.4%-0.6%-0.1%
Bosnia and HerzegovinaB+0-0.4%-0.4%-0.4%-0.1%
IraqI+0+0.4%+0.1%+0.5%+0.1%+0.2%
CroatiaL+0+0.2%-0.5%-0.3%-0.1%-0.2%
New ZealandG+0-0.3%+0.5%-0.2%
EgyptG+0-0.1%-0.1%-0.1%+0.2%
NetherlandsF+0+0.3%+0.2%-0.4%-0.2%
DR CongoK+0-0.3%+0.1%-0.1%-0.3%
PanamaL+0+0.1%+0.2%-0.6%-0.2%-0.1%+0.3%+0.1%
Ivory CoastE+0+0.3%-0.5%-0.1%+0.1%
GhanaL+0-0.2%
HaitiC+0+1.7%-1.8%-0.5%-0.6%
SpainH+0-0.2%+0.2%-0.3%-0.8%-0.6%-0.3%
SenegalI+0-0.2%-0.3%-0.5%-0.4%-0.2%
TurkeyD+0-0.5%+0.1%+0.2%-0.2%-0.3%-0.4%-0.3%-0.2%
GermanyE+0-0.2%+0.3%-0.5%-0.5%-0.2%+0.2%
ScotlandC+0+4.8%-7.2%+2.1%-0.3%-0.3%-0.5%-0.4%-0.2%
AustraliaD+0+0.4%-0.3%-0.2%
BelgiumG+0+0.5%-0.3%+0.3%+0.4%+0.2%+0.1%-0.1%
South KoreaA+0+0.7%-0.5%+0.2%+0.1%-0.4%-0.1%-0.1%
MexicoA+0-0.7%+0.6%+0.2%-0.8%-0.5%-0.1%
CanadaB+0-0.1%+0.4%-0.2%-0.2%-0.2%-0.1%
BrazilC-13-5.4%+4.7%+1.2%+0.5%-1.2%-0.6%-0.4%-0.4%-0.2%
PortugalK+0+0.2%+0.2%-0.4%+0.2%-0.2%-0.2%
FranceI+0+0.2%+0.1%-0.3%+0.2%-0.1%-0.3%