Elo Forecast

World Cup 2026

Japan1–1Sweden

Elo change: Japan -15

Pre-game: 49% / 25% / 25%

Mild upset — draw — Japan failed to win (Elo gap: 198)

Sweden goals →
012345+
← Japan goals07.4%7.7%4.0%1.4%
111.6%12.0%6.2%2.2%0.6%
29.1%9.4%4.9%1.7%
34.7%4.9%2.5%0.9%
41.8%1.9%1.0%
5+0.8%0.8%

Gold = actual result (1–1).

Click a team name to view their stats.

CountryGrpElo Δ1st (grp)2nd (grp)3rd (adv)R32R16QFSFFinalWin ▼
NetherlandsF+0+9.9%-9.9%——+0.8%+1.3%+0.8%+0.3%+0.2%
SwedenF+15—-24.1%+32.4%+8.2%+4.7%+2.1%+1.4%+0.5%+0.2%
BrazilC+0————-1.1%-0.3%-0.1%+0.1%+0.2%
EnglandL+0+0.4%-0.3%————+0.3%—+0.1%
NorwayI+0-0.1%+0.1%——+0.6%+0.3%-0.1%-0.1%—
BelgiumG+0——-0.1%-0.2%+0.2%+0.1%———
EgyptG+0-0.2%+0.2%——+0.8%+0.5%+0.4%+0.2%—
CanadaB+0————-0.8%————
AlgeriaJ+0—-0.2%—-0.3%+0.3%+0.4%+0.3%+0.2%—
UruguayH+0+0.2%-0.2%———————
IranG+0+0.2%-0.1%——+0.2%-0.2%———
GhanaL+0+0.1%-0.2%——+0.1%————
Bosnia and HerzegovinaB+0————+0.2%————
GermanyE+0————+1.1%+0.9%+0.3%+0.1%—
ParaguayD+0——-0.6%-0.6%-0.7%+0.2%+0.2%+0.1%—
Saudi ArabiaH+0—-0.3%—-0.2%—————
DR CongoK+0——+0.2%+0.2%+0.1%————
ColombiaK+0-0.3%+0.3%——-0.2%-0.4%-0.2%——
Cabo VerdeH+0-0.1%+0.5%-0.2%+0.1%-0.4%————
UzbekistanK+0——-0.1%-0.1%—————
PanamaL+0——-0.1%-0.1%—————
New ZealandG+0——+0.1%——————
JordanJ+0—————————
MoroccoC+0————-0.4%-0.5%-0.2%-0.2%—
TurkeyD+0—————————
Ivory CoastE+0—————-0.3%-0.2%——
South AfricaA+0————+0.8%-0.1%———
South KoreaA+0——-3.4%-3.4%-1.8%-0.6%-0.2%——
ScotlandC+0——-1.0%-1.0%-0.3%————
MexicoA+0————-0.1%-0.5%-0.1%——
AustraliaD+0——-1.2%-1.3%-0.7%-0.2%———
SenegalI+0——-0.4%-0.4%-0.5%-0.2%-0.2%——
AustriaJ+0—+0.2%-0.8%-0.6%—————
CroatiaL+0-0.5%+0.5%-0.4%-0.4%—-0.2%—+0.1%—
EcuadorE+0————+0.2%+0.2%-0.1%——
FranceI+0+0.1%-0.1%——+0.3%+0.1%—+0.2%—
SwitzerlandB+0————-0.5%-0.2%-0.1%-0.2%—
PortugalK+0+0.3%-0.3%———+0.3%-0.1%——
United StatesD+0————-0.2%-0.3%-0.2%——
ArgentinaJ+0————+0.1%-0.2%-0.2%-0.1%—
SpainH+0-0.1%————+0.2%-0.2%—-0.1%
JapanF-15-9.9%+34.0%-24.1%—-2.7%-2.5%-1.3%-0.8%-0.4%