World Cup 2026
Japan1–1Sweden
Elo change: Japan -15
Pre-game: 49% / 25% / 25%
Mild upset — draw — Japan failed to win (Elo gap: 198)
| Sweden goals → | |||||||
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ← Japan goals | 0 | 7.4% | 7.7% | 4.0% | 1.4% | ||
| 1 | 11.6% | 12.0% | 6.2% | 2.2% | 0.6% | ||
| 2 | 9.1% | 9.4% | 4.9% | 1.7% | |||
| 3 | 4.7% | 4.9% | 2.5% | 0.9% | |||
| 4 | 1.8% | 1.9% | 1.0% | ||||
| 5+ | 0.8% | 0.8% | |||||
Gold = actual result (1–1).
Click a team name to view their stats.
| Country | Grp | Elo Δ | 1st (grp) | 2nd (grp) | 3rd (adv) | R32 | R16 | QF | SF | Final | Win ▼ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Netherlands | F | +0 | +9.9% | -9.9% | — | — | +0.8% | +1.3% | +0.8% | +0.3% | +0.2% |
| Sweden | F | +15 | — | -24.1% | +32.4% | +8.2% | +4.7% | +2.1% | +1.4% | +0.5% | +0.2% |
 Brazil | C | +0 | — | — | — | — | -1.1% | -0.3% | -0.1% | +0.1% | +0.2% |
 England | L | +0 | +0.4% | -0.3% | — | — | — | — | +0.3% | — | +0.1% |
 Norway | I | +0 | -0.1% | +0.1% | — | — | +0.6% | +0.3% | -0.1% | -0.1% | — |
 Belgium | G | +0 | — | — | -0.1% | -0.2% | +0.2% | +0.1% | — | — | — |
 Egypt | G | +0 | -0.2% | +0.2% | — | — | +0.8% | +0.5% | +0.4% | +0.2% | — |
 Canada | B | +0 | — | — | — | — | -0.8% | — | — | — | — |
 Algeria | J | +0 | — | -0.2% | — | -0.3% | +0.3% | +0.4% | +0.3% | +0.2% | — |
 Uruguay | H | +0 | +0.2% | -0.2% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 Iran | G | +0 | +0.2% | -0.1% | — | — | +0.2% | -0.2% | — | — | — |
 Ghana | L | +0 | +0.1% | -0.2% | — | — | +0.1% | — | — | — | — |
 Bosnia and Herzegovina | B | +0 | — | — | — | — | +0.2% | — | — | — | — |
 Germany | E | +0 | — | — | — | — | +1.1% | +0.9% | +0.3% | +0.1% | — |
 Paraguay | D | +0 | — | — | -0.6% | -0.6% | -0.7% | +0.2% | +0.2% | +0.1% | — |
 Saudi Arabia | H | +0 | — | -0.3% | — | -0.2% | — | — | — | — | — |
 DR Congo | K | +0 | — | — | +0.2% | +0.2% | +0.1% | — | — | — | — |
 Colombia | K | +0 | -0.3% | +0.3% | — | — | -0.2% | -0.4% | -0.2% | — | — |
 Cabo Verde | H | +0 | -0.1% | +0.5% | -0.2% | +0.1% | -0.4% | — | — | — | — |
 Uzbekistan | K | +0 | — | — | -0.1% | -0.1% | — | — | — | — | — |
 Panama | L | +0 | — | — | -0.1% | -0.1% | — | — | — | — | — |
 New Zealand | G | +0 | — | — | +0.1% | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 Jordan | J | +0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 Morocco | C | +0 | — | — | — | — | -0.4% | -0.5% | -0.2% | -0.2% | — |
 Turkey | D | +0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 Ivory Coast | E | +0 | — | — | — | — | — | -0.3% | -0.2% | — | — |
 South Africa | A | +0 | — | — | — | — | +0.8% | -0.1% | — | — | — |
 South Korea | A | +0 | — | — | -3.4% | -3.4% | -1.8% | -0.6% | -0.2% | — | — |
 Scotland | C | +0 | — | — | -1.0% | -1.0% | -0.3% | — | — | — | — |
 Mexico | A | +0 | — | — | — | — | -0.1% | -0.5% | -0.1% | — | — |
 Australia | D | +0 | — | — | -1.2% | -1.3% | -0.7% | -0.2% | — | — | — |
 Senegal | I | +0 | — | — | -0.4% | -0.4% | -0.5% | -0.2% | -0.2% | — | — |
 Austria | J | +0 | — | +0.2% | -0.8% | -0.6% | — | — | — | — | — |
 Croatia | L | +0 | -0.5% | +0.5% | -0.4% | -0.4% | — | -0.2% | — | +0.1% | — |
 Ecuador | E | +0 | — | — | — | — | +0.2% | +0.2% | -0.1% | — | — |
 France | I | +0 | +0.1% | -0.1% | — | — | +0.3% | +0.1% | — | +0.2% | — |
 Switzerland | B | +0 | — | — | — | — | -0.5% | -0.2% | -0.1% | -0.2% | — |
 Portugal | K | +0 | +0.3% | -0.3% | — | — | — | +0.3% | -0.1% | — | — |
 United States | D | +0 | — | — | — | — | -0.2% | -0.3% | -0.2% | — | — |
 Argentina | J | +0 | — | — | — | — | +0.1% | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.1% | — |
 Spain | H | +0 | -0.1% | — | — | — | — | +0.2% | -0.2% | — | -0.1% |
| Japan | F | -15 | -9.9% | +34.0% | -24.1% | — | -2.7% | -2.5% | -1.3% | -0.8% | -0.4% |