Elo Forecast

World Cup 2026

Netherlands1–1Morocco(2–3 pens)

Elo change: Netherlands -9

Pre-game: 57% / 43%

Mild upset — Morocco won as underdog (Elo gap: 103)

Morocco goals →
012345+
← Netherlands goals09.2%9.8%5.2%1.8%0.5%
112.2%12.9%6.8%2.4%0.6%
28.1%8.6%4.5%1.6%
33.6%3.8%2.0%0.7%
41.2%1.3%0.7%
5+

Gold = actual result (1–1).

Click a team name to view their stats.

CountryGrpElo Δ1st (grp)2nd (grp)3rd (adv)R32R16QFSFFinalWin ▼
MoroccoC+9————+56.6%+30.4%+13.1%+5.6%+2.4%
FranceI+0—————-0.1%+1.7%+0.8%+0.6%
ParaguayD+0—————+0.3%+1.5%+0.4%+0.4%
ColombiaK+0————-0.2%-0.1%—+0.2%+0.4%
BrazilC+0—————+0.3%—-0.1%+0.2%
CanadaB+0—————+6.0%+2.1%+0.8%+0.2%
ArgentinaJ+0——————+0.2%—+0.2%
PortugalK+0————+0.2%+0.2%+0.2%+0.4%+0.1%
EcuadorE+0——————+0.3%—+0.1%
EnglandL+0————-0.2%-0.2%-0.2%—+0.1%
CroatiaL+0————-0.2%+0.4%+0.3%+0.2%—
BelgiumG+0—————+0.2%+0.2%+0.4%—
AustraliaD+0————-0.3%—+0.2%+0.1%—
AustriaJ+0———————+0.1%—
SwedenF+0—————-0.2%+0.3%+0.1%—
AlgeriaJ+0————-0.2%—-0.2%——
United StatesD+0————-0.2%-0.1%-0.1%+0.5%—
Bosnia and HerzegovinaB+0————+0.2%+0.4%+0.2%——
DR CongoK+0————+0.2%————
Cabo VerdeH+0—————————
MexicoA+0—————+0.3%———
Ivory CoastE+0————+0.1%-0.1%———
GhanaL+0————+0.2%+0.2%———
SwitzerlandB+0————+0.2%————
EgyptG+0————+0.3%——+0.1%—
SenegalI+0—————-0.5%-0.3%——
SpainH+0—————-0.4%-0.4%-0.1%-0.2%
NorwayI+0————-0.1%-0.2%-0.2%-0.3%-0.2%
NetherlandsF-9————-56.6%-36.3%-18.6%-9.3%-4.5%