Elo Forecast

World Cup 2026

Germany11Paraguay(34 pens)

Elo change: Germany -8

Pre-game: 57% / 43%

Mild upsetParaguay won as underdog (Elo gap: 101)

Paraguay goals →
012345+
Germany goals09.2%9.8%5.2%1.8%0.5%
112.2%12.9%6.8%2.4%0.6%
28.1%8.6%4.5%1.6%
33.6%3.8%2.0%0.7%
41.2%1.3%0.7%
5+

Gold = actual result (1–1).

Click a team name to view their stats.

CountryGrpElo Δ1st (grp)2nd (grp)3rd (adv)R32R16QFSFFinalWin
ParaguayD+8+56.0%+19.3%+8.4%+3.2%+1.2%
FranceI+0-0.2%+3.3%+1.9%+0.8%+0.4%
SpainH+0-0.4%-0.3%+0.4%+0.3%
SenegalI+0+0.5%+0.7%+0.6%+0.4%+0.3%
NetherlandsF+0+0.2%+1.0%+0.6%+0.2%
SwedenF+0+0.2%+1.6%+0.8%+0.3%+0.2%
United StatesD+0+0.1%+0.1%+0.4%+0.2%
NorwayI+0-0.5%+0.1%+0.1%
AustriaJ+0+0.1%-0.1%+0.1%
SwitzerlandB+0+0.2%+0.3%+0.3%+0.1%
AustraliaD+0+0.6%-0.1%
MexicoA+0+0.7%+0.2%+0.1%
CanadaB+0-0.3%+0.4%
BelgiumG+0-0.5%-0.6%-0.1%
EgyptG+0-0.6%
Ivory CoastE+0+0.5%+0.4%
PortugalK+0+0.2%+0.5%
Bosnia and HerzegovinaB+0-0.3%
BrazilC+0-0.3%+0.3%
AlgeriaJ+0-0.2%-0.1%
GhanaL+0
DR CongoK+0
EnglandL+0+0.4%
Cabo VerdeH+0-0.1%
CroatiaL+0-0.2%-0.2%-0.2%+0.1%
MoroccoC+0-0.2%+0.2%+0.4%
ArgentinaJ+0+0.1%+0.2%-0.1%
EcuadorE+0-0.7%-0.4%-0.3%-0.2%-0.2%
ColombiaK+0-0.1%-0.2%-0.5%-0.3%
GermanyE-8-56.0%-24.2%-12.9%-6.0%-2.8%