World Cup 2026
Germany1–1Paraguay
(3–4 pens)
Elo change: Germany -8
Pre-game: 57% / 43%
Mild upset — Paraguay won as underdog (Elo gap: 101)
| Paraguay goals → | |||||||
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ← Germany goals | 0 | 9.2% | 9.8% | 5.2% | 1.8% | 0.5% | |
| 1 | 12.2% | 12.9% | 6.8% | 2.4% | 0.6% | ||
| 2 | 8.1% | 8.6% | 4.5% | 1.6% | |||
| 3 | 3.6% | 3.8% | 2.0% | 0.7% | |||
| 4 | 1.2% | 1.3% | 0.7% | ||||
| 5+ | |||||||
Gold = actual result (1–1).
Click a team name to view their stats.
| Country | Grp | Elo Δ | 1st (grp) | 2nd (grp) | 3rd (adv) | R32 | R16 | QF | SF | Final | Win ▼ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paraguay | D | +8 | — | — | — | — | +56.0% | +19.3% | +8.4% | +3.2% | +1.2% |
 France | I | +0 | — | — | — | — | -0.2% | +3.3% | +1.9% | +0.8% | +0.4% |
 Spain | H | +0 | — | — | — | — | — | -0.4% | -0.3% | +0.4% | +0.3% |
 Senegal | I | +0 | — | — | — | — | +0.5% | +0.7% | +0.6% | +0.4% | +0.3% |
 Netherlands | F | +0 | — | — | — | — | +0.2% | — | +1.0% | +0.6% | +0.2% |
 Sweden | F | +0 | — | — | — | — | +0.2% | +1.6% | +0.8% | +0.3% | +0.2% |
 United States | D | +0 | — | — | — | — | — | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.4% | +0.2% |
 Norway | I | +0 | — | — | — | — | -0.5% | — | — | +0.1% | +0.1% |
 Austria | J | +0 | — | — | — | — | — | +0.1% | -0.1% | — | +0.1% |
 Switzerland | B | +0 | — | — | — | — | +0.2% | +0.3% | +0.3% | +0.1% | — |
 Australia | D | +0 | — | — | — | — | +0.6% | — | -0.1% | — | — |
 Mexico | A | +0 | — | — | — | — | +0.7% | — | +0.2% | +0.1% | — |
 Canada | B | +0 | — | — | — | — | — | -0.3% | +0.4% | — | — |
 Belgium | G | +0 | — | — | — | — | -0.5% | -0.6% | -0.1% | — | — |
 Egypt | G | +0 | — | — | — | — | -0.6% | — | — | — | — |
 Ivory Coast | E | +0 | — | — | — | — | +0.5% | +0.4% | — | — | — |
 Portugal | K | +0 | — | — | — | — | +0.2% | +0.5% | — | — | — |
 Bosnia and Herzegovina | B | +0 | — | — | — | — | — | -0.3% | — | — | — |
 Brazil | C | +0 | — | — | — | — | — | -0.3% | — | +0.3% | — |
 Algeria | J | +0 | — | — | — | — | -0.2% | — | — | -0.1% | — |
 Ghana | L | +0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 DR Congo | K | +0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 England | L | +0 | — | — | — | — | — | +0.4% | — | — | — |
 Cabo Verde | H | +0 | — | — | — | — | -0.1% | — | — | — | — |
 Croatia | L | +0 | — | — | — | — | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.2% | +0.1% | — |
 Morocco | C | +0 | — | — | — | — | -0.2% | +0.2% | +0.4% | — | — |
 Argentina | J | +0 | — | — | — | — | +0.1% | +0.2% | — | — | -0.1% |
 Ecuador | E | +0 | — | — | — | — | -0.7% | -0.4% | -0.3% | -0.2% | -0.2% |
 Colombia | K | +0 | — | — | — | — | — | -0.1% | -0.2% | -0.5% | -0.3% |
| Germany | E | -8 | — | — | — | — | -56.0% | -24.2% | -12.9% | -6.0% | -2.8% |